Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:26:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x62aa…a492 crypto 344 markets active 0h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$39 (-1%) realized −$32 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate39%134W / 209L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day31.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$158
7 days−$46
14 days−$390
30 days−$516
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$349
politics 18% −$164
sports 2% −$4
other 0% −$6
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 135 +2.0% -7.8% 38% 36% -11.3%
≤30d 343 +2.9% -6.9% 39% 37% -18.5%
≤90d 343 +2.9% -6.9% 39% 37% -18.5%
all 343 +2.9% -6.9% 39% 37% -18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.9% 37% -18.5%
10% ← realistic here -15.8% 32% -26.3%
15% -23.9% 26% -33.4%
20% -31.4% 21% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$10 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$32
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses134 / 209
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)343 / 344
History coverage26d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day31.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 343 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Down 28¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 152 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 21 $14 −$2 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 21 $46 +$9 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 20 $27 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 20 $44 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 20 $37 −$9 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 20 $22 −$3 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 20 $42 +$32 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 20 $27 −$26 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 20 $39 +$56 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 20 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 20 $22 −$21 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 20 $33 −$4 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 20 $52 +$16 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 20 $27 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 20 $91 +$39 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 20 $23 +$11 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 20 $69 −$29 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 20 $80 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 20 $21 −$3 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 20 $34 −$32 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 20 $35 −$6 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 20 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 20 $23 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 20 $21 −$12 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 20 $17 −$9 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 20 $25 +$22 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 20 $20 −$19 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 20 $25 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 20 $25 +$9 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 20 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 20 $9 +$6 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 20 $17 −$16 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 20 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 20 $9 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 20 $46 −$44 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 20 $28 −$6 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 20 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 20 $30 +$20 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 20 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 20 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 20 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 20 $35 +$10 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 20 $19 −$18 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$34 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 20 $16 −$15 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $7 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $4 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $12 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $14 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $13 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $11 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $42 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $34 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $29 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $27 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $17 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $43 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $27 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $9 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $42 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $27 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $6 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $17 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $16 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $2 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $2 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $2 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $2 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $2 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $2 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $2 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $2 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $2 53m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.12 · official $8.67 · 857 history records