trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 10 | -0.8% | -10.3% | 10% | 0% | -10.0% |
| ≤90d | 10 | -0.8% | -10.3% | 10% | 0% | -10.0% |
| all | 27 | -0.3% | -9.8% | 30% | 4% | -9.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -9.8% | 4% | -9.6% |
| 10% | -18.4% | 4% | -18.3% |
| 15% | -26.3% | 0% | -26.2% |
| 20% | -33.5% | 0% | -33.4% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | No | 52¢ | 48¢ | $27 | $25 | −$2 (-8%) |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Yes | 5¢ | 3¢ | $0 | $0 | −$0 (-32%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | Jun 06 | $17 | $0 | +0% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | Jun 05 | $52 | $0 | -0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 05 | $6 | $0 | -0% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | Jun 05 | $7 | $0 | -5% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Jun 01 | $28 | $0 | -0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | May 30 | $59 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | May 29 | $37 | −$1 | -2% |
| Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab | May 29 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | May 29 | $29 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? | May 28 | $31 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? | Dec 14 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? | Jun 26 | $11 | $0 | -2% |
| Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? | May 28 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 | May 23 | $1 | $0 | -39% |
| Will Tim Stokely buy TikTok before July? | May 23 | $13 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? | May 21 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? | May 18 | $13 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Portugal finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? | May 16 | $13 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? | May 16 | $14 | +$1 | +9% |
| Will the AFD be part of the next German government? | Apr 15 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| 10-year Treasury yield below 4% before April? | Apr 03 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $330b and $340b on March 31? | Mar 25 | $12 | −$1 | -9% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 50°F or below on March 24? | Mar 24 | $15 | $0 | -0% |
| Will 'Snow White' gross more than 49m on opening weekend? | Mar 23 | $15 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 14-21? | Mar 21 | $2 | +$1 | +34% |
| Will Jerome Powell say "Good Afternoon" during the March meeting? | Mar 21 | $11 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Mar 16 | $14 | $0 | +0% |