Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:03:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x62ad…24ad crypto 906 markets active 2h ago coverage 65d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 65d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,768 (+14%) realized +$2,768 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate58%525W / 381L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day39.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 65d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$1,529
other 7% +$170
sports 0% +$37
weather 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.4% -9.1% 83% 67% -10.2%
≤30d 235 -19.5% -27.2% 44% 41% -24.0%
≤90d 906 -2.4% -11.7% 58% 50% -15.7%
all 906 -2.4% -11.7% 58% 50% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.7% 50% -15.7%
10% ← realistic here -20.2% 41% -23.8%
15% -27.9% 31% -31.2%
20% -35.0% 22% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$16 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,768
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses525 / 381
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)906 / 906
History coverage65d ⚠
Avg bet$21
Trades / day39.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 906 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 23 $76 +$22 +29%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 23 $7 +$1 +9%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 23 $58 −$58 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 23 $9 +$2 +20%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 23 $45 +$6 +13%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 23 $79 +$26 +32%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 14 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 14 $49 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $24 +$23 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 14 $17 +$8 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $21 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $49 +$37 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $9 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $16 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $16 +$11 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 13 $32 +$14 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $32 +$16 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 13 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $35 −$11 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $18 +$6 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 13 $18 +$6 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 13 $43 +$18 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 13 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $50 −$15 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $29 +$21 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 13 $50 +$45 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$18 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $30 −$9 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $50 +$17 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 12 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 12 $13 +$4 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $12 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $63 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $7 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $9 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $4 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $41 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $58 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $10 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $7 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $63 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $8 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $13 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $13 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $15 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $3 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $4 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $6 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $19 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $19 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $10 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $15 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $17 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $3 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $4 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $4 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records