Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:35:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x62b2…f214 world 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$37 (+2%) realized +$65 · open −$28
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate56%18W / 14L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$26
14 days−$11
30 days+$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 60% +$32
sports 27% +$19
other 13% −$26
politics 0% +$1
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -22.8% -30.2% 57% 29% -7.1%
≤30d 32 -8.5% -17.2% 56% 41% -6.6%
≤90d 32 -8.5% -17.2% 56% 41% -6.6%
all 32 -8.5% -17.2% 56% 41% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.2% 41% -6.6%
10% -25.2% 25% -15.5%
15% -32.4% 19% -23.7%
20% -39.0% 19% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$6 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.63 per $1 lost it wins $1.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized+$65
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses18 / 14
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions7
Markets (closed)32 / 39
History coverage28d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by June 30? Yes 65¢ 10¢ $32 $5 −$27 (-84%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $6 $5 −$1 (-23%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $4 $4 +$1 (+15%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-69%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $628 +$15 +2%
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $166 −$4 -3%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Jun 16 $80 −$1 -1%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $80 +$5 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $46 +$9 +18%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $50 +$8 +16%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $3 +$3 +77%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $81 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 07 $85 −$3 -4%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $83 +$2 +2%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $51 −$28 -55%
Will Florentino Perez win the 2026 Real Madrid presidential election? Jun 05 $3 +$1 +27%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $62 +$48 +78%
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $33 −$24 -72%
Prostejov: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Luka Pavlovic Jun 02 $24 +$4 +17%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $3 −$2 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $80 +$3 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $68 +$14 +21%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1 −$1 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $49 +$8 +17%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 28 $1 −$1 -52%
Will Trump say "Iran" 10+ times during Cabinet meeting? May 27 $1 −$1 -94%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $5 +$8 +160%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 25 $1 −$1 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 25 $5 +$3 +66%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $2 +$4 +211%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $2 +$1 +58%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $1 $0 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $88 52m
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $79 2h
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 69¢ $79 13h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva BUY Vit Kopriva $1 18h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva SELL Alexander Zverev 85¢ $85 18h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva BUY Alexander Zverev 79¢ $79 18h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 31h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $85 39h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $79 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $179 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $15 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $170 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 40¢ $12 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 25¢ $5 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $114 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $6 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $85 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $26 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $177 2d
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 2d
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $26 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 87¢ $30 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 75¢ $25 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 91¢ $25 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 75¢ $18 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 75¢ $3 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $21 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $10 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $20 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.10 · official $20.10 (match) · 117 history records