Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:08:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x62b2…91e9 other 238 markets active 1h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$72 (-0%) realized −$72 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%12W / 226L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$198per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$20
14 days−$29
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$36
sports 23% −$20
politics 9% −$7
culture 7% −$6
economics 6% −$5
crypto 4% −$2
world 3% −$2
tech 1% $0
finance 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 77 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 182 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 238 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$72
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses12 / 226
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)238 / 238
History coverage127d
Avg bet$198
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 238 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $173 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $291 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $454 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $306 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $295 −$2 -1%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $235 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $127 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $215 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $417 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $414 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 15 $556 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $227 $0 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $48 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $249 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $123 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $763 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $331 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $271 −$1 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 14 $384 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $219 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $301 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $270 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $162 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $177 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $172 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $128 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $510 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 12 $437 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $116 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $113 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $110 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $122 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $767 −$2 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $162 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $188 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $51 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $112 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 09 $361 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $417 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $328 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $257 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $419 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $214 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $226 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $108 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $433 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 05 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $206 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $47 1h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $47 2h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $12 2h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $35 4h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $47 6h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $47 10h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $47 12h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $47 16h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $47 18h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $47 20h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $47 22h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $47 22h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $47 24h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $47 26h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $47 28h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $47 29h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $47 31h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $47 32h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $47 34h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $47 35h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $48 37h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $48 38h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $48 40h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $48 41h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $48 44h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 96¢ $48 44h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 96¢ $48 46h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 97¢ $41 46h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $7 47h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $48 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1333 history records