Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:20:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
62 0x62b8…a9ae sports 75 markets active 1h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$495 (+13%) realized +$510 · open −$15
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate50%35W / 35L
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$175now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$38
7 days+$191
14 days+$312
30 days+$708
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% +$306
other 40% +$528
world 5% −$35
crypto 2% −$35
politics 1% +$1
weather 0% −$15
culture 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +15.2% +4.3% 62% 62% +5.5%
≤30d 27 +22.9% +11.2% 63% 59% +22.4%
≤90d 70 -0.8% -10.2% 50% 49% +8.7%
all 70 -0.8% -10.2% 50% 49% +8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 49% +8.7%
10% -18.8% 40% -1.7%
15% -26.7% 31% -11.2%
20% -33.9% 24% -19.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +20% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$28 · ×1.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.78 per $1 lost it wins $1.78
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$175
Realized+$510
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses35 / 35
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions5
Markets (closed)70 / 75
History coverage66d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $100 $78 −$22 (-22%)
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 58¢ 62¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+7%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $23 +$3 (+17%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 21¢ 24¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+17%)
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $51 +$20 +39%
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $10 +$17 +168%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $10 +$2 +16%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $20 +$40 +197%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $41 +$7 +18%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $51 +$57 +111%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $201 +$49 +24%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $203 −$203 -100%
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $102 +$103 +101%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$93 +92%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $203 +$158 +78%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $201 +$10 +5%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Korea Republic to score first vs. Czechia? Jun 12 $51 −$51 -100%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? Jun 12 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $153 +$242 +158%
Counter-Strike: magic vs FaZe (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 28 $101 +$12 +12%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $152 +$164 +107%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 25 $10 +$5 +47%
Liverpool FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 0.5 May 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $51 +$149 +291%
Will Aston Villa finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings? May 25 $50 +$77 +154%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $81 +$30 +38%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? May 24 $10 +$11 +104%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $10 −$7 -72%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 23 $102 +$107 +105%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO3) - CS Asia Championships G May 22 $131 +$60 +46%
Will Bryan Johnson have sex again this month? May 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Freiburg win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? May 21 $30 +$6 +21%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? May 21 $50 +$52 +104%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on April 26? Apr 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Olympique de Marseille vs. OGC Nice: O/U 1.5 Apr 29 $99 −$99 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on April 26? Apr 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 229.5 Apr 26 $70 +$23 +33%
Will "Michael" score at least 35 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? Apr 26 $10 −$6 -61%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 26 $70 −$1 -1%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: O/U 3.5 Apr 26 $90 −$27 -30%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Apr 26 $30 +$29 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Apr 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Apr 25 $20 +$6 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Apr 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $50 −$27 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Apr 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Apr 25 $10 −$1 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 75¢ $70 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 53¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? SELL Yes 39¢ $27 1h
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? SELL Yes 33¢ $12 1h
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under $10 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 33¢ $20 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 14¢ $14 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 14¢ $11 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 33¢ $10 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 35¢ $34 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 20¢ $20 4d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 44¢ $108 5d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 20¢ $51 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $0 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 99¢ $250 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 79¢ $201 5d
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 48¢ $203 6d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $101 6d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $102 6d
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes $10 6d
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 6d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY 51¢ $101 7d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY 56¢ $203 7d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 7d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 86¢ $211 8d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $10 9d
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 58¢ $51 12d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 81¢ $201 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $175.37 · official $175.38 (match) · 187 history records