Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:03:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x62b8…cedb crypto 1294 markets active 2d ago coverage 182d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 182d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate77%1000W / 294L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day17.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$13
14 days−$16
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 +0.5% -9.1% 71% 35% -11.3%
≤30d 60 -1.1% -10.5% 70% 38% -12.0%
≤90d 203 +0.9% -8.7% 73% 32% -11.1%
all 1294 -0.1% -9.6% 77% 30% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 30% -9.9%
10% -18.2% 2% -18.5%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

182d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses1000 / 294
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1294 / 1294
History coverage182d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day17.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1294 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$3 -46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$4 -43%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$2 -23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$4 -40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $23 +$3 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$1 -12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $30 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $40 −$13 -32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $19 +$3 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $12 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $21 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $18 −$6 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $19 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $18 −$10 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $18 +$2 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$3 +51%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $8 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$6 +47%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $12 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $8 +$1 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $18 −$8 -43%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$1 -16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $8 +$1 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $9 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $9 +$1 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$2 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$1 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $9 +$1 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $20 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $52 −$3 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$2 -38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $30 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$1 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $14 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$1 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $4 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $3 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $4 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $8 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $6 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $6 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $3 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $3 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $3 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $20 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $6 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $6 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $7 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $8 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $16 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records