Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:20:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
62 0x62b8…7599 other 100 markets active 4d ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$45 (+0%) realized +$45 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate10%10W / 90L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$129per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$7
politics 34% −$5
sports 5% +$57
economics 5% −$1
tech 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
world 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 92 -1.5% -10.8% 7% 3% -9.5%
all 100 +1.8% -7.9% 10% 6% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 6% -9.2%
10% -16.7% 5% -17.9%
15% -24.8% 2% -25.8%
20% -32.1% 2% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$0 · ×28.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.14 per $1 lost it wins $3.14
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses10 / 90
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)100 / 100
History coverage109d
Avg bet$129
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 100 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $12 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $25 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $18 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $19 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $135 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 24 $144 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 22 $146 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $256 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $105 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $98 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 18 $120 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $121 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $133 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 15 $139 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $226 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $106 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 12 $352 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $103 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 11 $134 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $269 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $112 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 21 $149 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $121 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $103 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $116 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $113 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Apr 20 $146 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $132 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 19 $131 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $124 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 18 $377 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $109 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $111 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $126 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $116 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $149 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $269 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $101 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $145 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $118 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $150 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $123 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $107 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $109 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 13 $150 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $103 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $244 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $122 $0 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 12 $148 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 07 $104 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $12 4d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $12 4d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $25 4d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 4d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $18 7d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $18 10d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $19 12d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $19 18d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $135 20d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $135 23d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $144 24d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $144 25d
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $146 26d
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $146 27d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $136 27d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $136 29d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $105 30d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $105 30d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $98 30d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $98 31d
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $120 31d
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $120 32d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $121 32d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $121 33d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $133 33d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $133 34d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $139 34d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $139 35d
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $114 35d
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $114 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 281 history records