Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:38:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x62bc…97ac crypto 674 markets active 0h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,457 (-7%) realized −$1,817 · open +$360
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate31%205W / 462L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day40.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$581now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$678
7 days−$2,102
14 days−$2,098
30 days−$2,445
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$1,762
other 6% −$315
sports 1% −$122
politics 1% −$68
world 1% −$45
weather 0% $0
finance 0% −$38
tech 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-33.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 230 -71.7% -74.4% 8% 7% -51.6%
≤30d 610 -27.0% -33.9% 30% 25% -21.1%
≤90d 667 -26.1% -33.1% 31% 25% -21.9%
all 667 -26.1% -33.1% 31% 25% -21.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -33.1% 25% -21.9%
10% ← realistic here -39.5% 22% -29.4%
15% -45.4% 20% -36.2%
20% -50.7% 17% -42.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$14 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$581
Realized−$1,817
Unrealized+$360
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses205 / 462
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions7
Markets (closed)667 / 674
History coverage66d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day40.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 667 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Up 4¢ 50¢ $35 $399 +$364 (+1040%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $75 $74 −$1 (-1%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-5%)
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+2%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-3%)
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-2%)
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 21 $153 +$30 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? Jun 21 $10 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 21 $52 −$11 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 21 $44 −$16 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 21 $52 −$25 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 21 $130 −$74 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 21 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 21 $79 −$9 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 21 $103 −$51 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 21 $79 −$55 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 21 $86 +$29 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 21 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 21 $166 −$5 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 21 $78 +$75 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 21 $78 +$47 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 21 $52 −$48 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 21 $63 +$39 +63%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $128 −$68 -53%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $20 +$52 +256%
IR Iran to score first vs. Belgium? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 21 $52 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 21 $60 −$44 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 21 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $26 −$11 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 21 $47 −$42 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 21 $16 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 21 $33 −$32 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 21 $32 −$4 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 21 $19 −$18 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 21 $32 −$12 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 21 $13 −$8 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 21 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 21 $28 −$9 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 21 $18 −$1 -4%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 20 $5 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 20 $16 −$3 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 20 $80 −$48 -60%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 20 $5 −$2 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 20 $41 +$33 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 20 $19 −$6 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 20 $72 −$72 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Scotland Jun 20 $5 −$1 -13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 81¢ $132 1m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? SELL Yes 52¢ $9 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $11 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $11 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $28 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $26 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $26 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $42 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $26 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Up 73¢ $2 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $26 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $25 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $26 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $26 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $29 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $25 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $27 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $26 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $26 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $26 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $27 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $27 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $26 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $26 38m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $581.05 · official $580.74 (match) · 3303 history records