Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:00:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x62bd…398e sports 77 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$808 (-20%) realized −$808 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate41%28W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Fees−$83est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days−$54
14 days−$932
30 days−$945
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% −$643
crypto 28% −$293
other 1% −$9
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +22.6% +11.0% 44% 44% -14.0%
≤30d 69 -11.0% -19.4% 41% 35% -31.1%
≤90d 69 -11.0% -19.4% 41% 35% -31.1%
all 69 -11.0% -19.4% 41% 35% -31.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.4% 35% -31.1%
10% -27.1% 29% -37.7%
15% -34.2% 20% -43.8%
20% -40.6% 13% -49.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$39 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$808
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses28 / 41
Est. fees paid−$83
Open positions0
Markets (closed)69 / 77
History coverage18d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 69 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $46 +$7 +15%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $46 −$3 -6%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Jun 16 $25 −$4 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$2 -34%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $14 $0 -2%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +13%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$18 +344%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$10 +473%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $4 +$1 +32%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $104 +$29 +28%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $64 −$64 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $199 +$88 +44%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $94 −$89 -96%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $40 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $101 −$6 -6%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $99 $0 -0%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $10 +$12 +114%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $26 +$29 +111%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $7 −$2 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 13 $21 +$4 +21%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $51 −$40 -78%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 12 $51 +$21 +42%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 12 $58 +$13 +23%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $112 −$29 -26%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $46 +$12 +27%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $66 −$66 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $221 −$221 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $51 −$29 -56%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $47 −$40 -85%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $82 −$82 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 06 $152 −$135 -89%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $90 −$46 -51%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $128 +$152 +118%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 06 $102 −$93 -91%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $93 +$26 +28%
Will Singapore vs. China PR end in a draw? Jun 06 $52 −$52 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 06 $105 −$85 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 06 $186 −$25 -14%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $50 −$26 -52%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 05 $65 +$37 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 05 $183 +$47 +25%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 05 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 05 $52 +$3 +7%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 03 $22 −$13 -60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL EDward Gaming 23¢ $19 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL EDward Gaming 42¢ $34 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 16¢ $14 2h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 27¢ $46 12h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06- BUY 4¢ $5 31h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Eng BUY 13¢ $5 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 13¢ $4 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 1¢ $1 2d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? AND Will Austria vs. Jordan BUY 4¢ $7 2d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL FUT Esports 35¢ $43 2d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 36¢ $46 2d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Spread: Argentin BUY 4¢ $5 3d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? AND Will Argentina vs. Algeria BUY 1¢ $5 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a BUY 2¢ $5 3d
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World SELL InterActive Philippines 43¢ $0 3d
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World SELL InterActive Philippines 43¢ $21 3d
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World BUY InterActive Philippines 50¢ $25 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Down 24¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 52¢ $9 3d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $23 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 3d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Cabo Verde 69¢ $5 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 3d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $14.00 · 188 history records