Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:32:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x62bd…d7d3 crypto 650 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 4d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (679 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$18,254 (+6%) realized +$18,252 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate60%433W / 291L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$433per market
Trades / day678.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$6,040
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (679 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 724 -7.5% -16.3% 60% 40% -7.6%
≤30d 724 -7.5% -16.3% 60% 40% -7.6%
≤90d 724 -7.5% -16.3% 60% 40% -7.6%
all 724 -7.5% -16.3% 60% 40% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover678.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.3% 40% -7.6%
10% ← realistic here -24.3% 39% -16.5%
15% -31.6% 38% -24.5%
20% -38.3% 35% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$2 · ×7.31 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×10.87 per $1 lost it wins $10.87
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$18,252
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses433 / 291
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)724 / 650
History coverage4d ⚠
Avg bet$433
Trades / day678.9
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 724 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Down 0¢ 42¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 267 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $396 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $396 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $26 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $4 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $297 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $69 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $396 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $396 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $396 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $396 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $396 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $129 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $99 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $4 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $164 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $396 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $396 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $396 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $396 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $396 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $389 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $7 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $106 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $132 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $8 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $88 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $124 22m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.70 · official $1.70 (match) · 3500 history records