Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:05:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
62 0x62c3…90fc sports 185 markets active 1h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$4,824 (+14%) realized +$5,008 · open −$184
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate63%112W / 66L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$185per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$173est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$1,854now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4,977
7 days+$4,689
14 days+$4,646
30 days+$3,145
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$616
other 12% +$4,040
crypto 0% −$2
politics 0% −$13
weather 0% −$15
finance 0% +$2
world 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +157.4% +132.9% 80% 80% +269.2%
≤30d 54 +11.5% +0.9% 56% 54% +36.9%
≤90d 149 +9.4% -1.0% 67% 61% +4.3%
all 178 +2.0% -7.7% 63% 57% +4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 57% +4.1%
10% -16.5% 45% -5.9%
15% -24.6% 35% -15.0%
20% -32.0% 23% -23.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$100 vs −$96 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.76 per $1 lost it wins $1.76
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$1,854
Realized+$5,008
Unrealized−$184
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses112 / 66
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$173
Open positions7
Markets (closed)178 / 185
History coverage140d
Avg bet$185
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 178 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $746 $742 −$4 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $680 $676 −$4 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs AM Gaming (BO3) - DraculaN Group A Inner Circle Esports 73¢ 72¢ $198 $194 −$4 (-2%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Yes 37¢ 32¢ $207 $181 −$26 (-12%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-4%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-8%)
Rainbow Six Siege: Twisted Minds vs Team Secret (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage 1 Group Stage Twisted Minds 76¢ 0¢ $142 $0 −$142 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 62 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 22 $115 +$66 +57%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Mackenzie McDonald vs Felipe Meligeni Al Jun 22 $201 +$43 +21%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 22 $303 +$114 +38%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $616 +$4,754 +771%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 19 $292 −$287 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 10 $15 −$15 -99%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $13 −$13 -98%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $7 −$7 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $45 +$5 +12%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $32 +$12 +38%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $30 +$3 +11%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $15 +$14 +90%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $60 −$60 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $50 +$11 +23%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $14 −$14 -99%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $30 −$30 -99%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $30 +$13 +44%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $25 +$11 +44%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $30 −$30 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $92 +$32 +34%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $15 +$17 +114%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $50 +$21 +42%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 05 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 05 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 05 $25 −$25 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 05 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 05 $55 −$54 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $39 +$26 +65%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $32 −$32 -99%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $24 +$16 +67%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $40 +$31 +79%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $61 +$39 +64%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 03 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $35 +$24 +67%
Counter-Strike: Gaimin Gladiators vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 03 $38 +$7 +18%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $14 +$12 +86%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 03 $25 +$25 +97%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 02 $26 −$26 -98%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $19 −$19 -99%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 02 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $30 +$22 +73%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $20 +$15 +76%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 02 $25 +$44 +172%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Gaimin Gladiators (BO1) - IEM Cologne Jun 02 $47 +$9 +20%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $33 +$15 +44%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $20 +$12 +60%
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 02 $75 −$55 -73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $750 40m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $683 40m
Rainbow Six Siege: Twisted Minds vs Team Secret (BO1) - Europe MENA Le BUY Twisted Minds 76¢ $143 1h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs AM Gaming (BO3) - DraculaN Gro BUY Inner Circle Esports 73¢ $200 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Mackenzie McDonald vs Felipe Meligeni Al BUY Mackenzie McDonald 82¢ $201 2h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Power Rangers 63¢ $115 3h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Virtus.pro 72¢ $303 8h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 33¢ $35 9h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 38¢ $176 26h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $26 32h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $41 32h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 58¢ $1,039 32h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $292 2d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $293 2d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 55¢ $15 12d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY BIG 45¢ $5 13d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY BIG 45¢ $10 13d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY TYLOO 27¢ $13 13d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY M80 17¢ $7 14d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL G2 100¢ $51 14d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY G2 89¢ $45 14d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $44 14d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 72¢ $32 14d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Spirit 90¢ $30 15d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Legacy 82¢ $60 15d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY GamerLegion 52¢ $14 15d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY BIG 52¢ $15 15d
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Astralis 64¢ $20 15d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY G2 53¢ $30 15d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 58¢ $30 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,854.04 · official $1,854.04 (match) · 335 history records