Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:14:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
62 0x62c5…eb1f sports 72 markets active 1h ago coverage 195d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$65 (-24%) realized −$65 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate29%21W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$19
other 32% −$26
politics 8% −$18
finance 2% −$5
economics 2% $0
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-24.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -19.2% -26.9% 33% 33% -32.3%
≤30d 6 -19.2% -26.9% 33% 33% -32.3%
≤90d 6 -19.2% -26.9% 33% 33% -32.3%
all 72 -16.8% -24.7% 29% 28% -32.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.7% 28% -32.3%
10% -31.9% 28% -38.8%
15% -38.5% 26% -44.7%
20% -44.6% 25% -50.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% too few recent
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

195d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$65
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses21 / 51
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)72 / 72
History coverage195d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 72 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -86%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$4 +220%
Seahawks vs. Patriots: O/U 46.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +51%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 08 $2 +$3 +136%
Will Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legis Feb 08 $5 −$5 -99%
Patriots vs. Broncos Feb 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Feb 02 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-01? Feb 02 $2 +$7 +354%
Texans vs. Patriots Jan 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Rams vs. Bears Jan 21 $2 −$2 -100%
49ers vs. Seahawks Jan 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bills vs. Broncos: O/U 46.5 Jan 18 $5 +$6 +112%
Chargers vs. Patriots Jan 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Texans vs. Steelers Jan 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-17? Jan 17 $2 +$7 +375%
Heat vs. Bulls Jan 13 $2 $0 -12%
Packers vs. Bears Jan 11 $2 +$7 +365%
Magic vs. Wizards Jan 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Ravens vs. Steelers Jan 05 $3 +$9 +332%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-01-03? Jan 05 $3 $0 -6%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-01-01? Jan 05 $9 −$9 -100%
Steelers vs. Browns Jan 01 $7 −$7 -100%
Buccaneers vs. Dolphins Jan 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Eagles vs. Bills Jan 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Steve Harrington die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Jan 01 $5 +$2 +33%
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Jan 01 $4 −$2 -62%
Suns vs. Pelicans Dec 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Broncos (-13.5) Dec 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Heat vs. Hawks Dec 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Cowboys vs. Commanders Dec 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Broncos vs. Chiefs: O/U 44.5 Dec 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Raptors vs. Wizards Dec 27 $2 +$1 +72%
Lions vs. Vikings Dec 26 $2 +$6 +316%
Spurs vs. Thunder Dec 25 $2 +$6 +300%
California vs. Hawaii Dec 25 $2 +$2 +87%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2025-12-20? Dec 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Anthony Joshua win his boxing match against Jake Paul? Dec 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Jaguars vs. Broncos Dec 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2025-12-20? Dec 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Everton FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Dec 24 $2 −$2 -100%
49ers vs. Colts Dec 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Steelers vs. Lions: O/U 51.5 Dec 22 $2 +$2 +85%
Rams vs. Seahawks Dec 19 $4 +$4 +103%
Rams vs. Seahawks: O/U 51.5 Dec 19 $2 $0 +8%
Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in Dec 19 $2 −$1 -75%
Will Kabuto 1st Edition card hit $100 by December 31? Dec 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Army vs. Navy: O/U 39.5 Dec 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? SELL Yes $1 45m
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 9h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 9h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 23h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 34h
Seahawks vs. Patriots BUY Patriots 32¢ $4 126d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes $4 126d
Will Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legis SELL No $0 126d
Will Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legis BUY No 74¢ $5 128d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes $1 128d
Seahawks vs. Patriots: O/U 46.5 BUY Over 46¢ $2 130d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes $2 131d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-01? BUY No 22¢ $2 133d
Patriots vs. Broncos BUY Broncos 35¢ $10 140d
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes $2 144d
Rams vs. Bears BUY Bears 36¢ $2 147d
Texans vs. Patriots BUY Texans 38¢ $2 147d
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes $3 147d
49ers vs. Seahawks BUY 49ers 13¢ $2 148d
Bills vs. Broncos: O/U 46.5 SELL Over 100¢ $11 148d
Bills vs. Broncos: O/U 46.5 BUY Over 47¢ $5 148d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-17? SELL No 100¢ $9 148d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-17? BUY No 21¢ $2 150d
49ers vs. Seahawks BUY 49ers 26¢ $2 150d
Heat vs. Bulls SELL Bulls 31¢ $2 153d
Texans vs. Steelers BUY Steelers 42¢ $5 153d
Chargers vs. Patriots BUY Chargers 17¢ $2 154d
Chargers vs. Patriots BUY Chargers 35¢ $5 154d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 166 history records