Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T00:38:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
62 0x62c5…0c7a other 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$60 (+8%) realized +$36 · open +$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate80%12W / 3L
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$176now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$30
7 days+$49
14 days+$56
30 days+$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% +$83
world 39% −$17
crypto 2% +$3
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +43.9% +30.2% 100% 100% +30.4%
≤30d 3 +34.8% +22.0% 100% 100% +24.1%
≤90d 3 +34.8% +22.0% 100% 100% +24.1%
all 15 +3.1% -6.7% 80% 47% -2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 47% -2.2%
10% -15.6% 27% -11.6%
15% -23.8% 20% -20.1%
20% -31.2% 7% -28.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 56% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +37% too few recent
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$15 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.02 per $1 lost it wins $2.02
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$176
Realized+$36
Unrealized+$24
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses12 / 3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)15 / 17
History coverage133d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 15¢ $105 $118 +$14 (+13%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 69¢ 84¢ $48 $58 +$10 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $66 +$30 +45%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $46 +$20 +43%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1? Jun 16 $38 +$6 +17%
Warriors vs. Wizards Mar 17 $1 $0 +35%
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? Feb 28 $23 −$23 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Feb 25 $44 +$2 +5%
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Feb 23 $21 −$1 -4%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-22? Feb 22 $40 +$5 +12%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-21? Feb 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-02-20? Feb 22 $27 +$20 +72%
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? Feb 20 $47 +$1 +3%
US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026? Feb 18 $47 +$1 +1%
US strikes Iran by February 14, 2026? Feb 16 $93 +$1 +2%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 12, 2026 (ET)? Feb 13 $26 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 11? Feb 12 $16 +$3 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $47 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 69¢ $48 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $66 36h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $46 7d
Warriors vs. Wizards BUY Warriors 74¢ $1 99d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $45 118d
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $46 118d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1? BUY Yes 88¢ $20 120d
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes 66¢ $20 120d
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $44 121d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-22? SELL Yes 99¢ $45 121d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $14 121d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-22? BUY Yes 89¢ $40 121d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-21? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 123d
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-02-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $27 123d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1? BUY Yes 83¢ $18 123d
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $23 124d
US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $47 127d
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $47 127d
US strikes Iran by February 14, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $93 130d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 12, 2026 (ET)? SELL No 100¢ $26 130d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 11? BUY Yes 86¢ $16 132d
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $21 133d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 12, 2026 (ET)? BUY No 99¢ $26 133d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $176.13 · official $176.13 (match) · 159 history records