Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:45:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

62 0x62cb…6376 crypto 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$47 (+1%) realized +$47 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip

Net edge-3%after slip

Net WR44%break-even

Win rate44%7W / 9L

Drawdown96%max

Avg bet$241per market

Trades / day47.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +44%

net ROI/market (all)+14.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	16	+26.3%	+14.3%	44%	44%	-8.4%
≤30d	16	+26.3%	+14.3%	44%	44%	-8.4%
≤90d	16	+26.3%	+14.3%	44%	44%	-8.4%
all	16	+26.3%	+14.3%	44%	44%	-8.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover47.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+14.3%	44%	-8.4%
10% ← realistic here	+3.4%	31%	-17.2%
15%	-6.6%	31%	-25.2%
20%	-15.8%	31%	-32.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 31% · top 2 59% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +26% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +114% → late -61% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$204 vs −$154 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.03 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$47

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)44%

Wins / losses7 / 9

Open positions0

Markets (closed)16 / 16

History coverage1d

Avg bet$241

Trades / day47.0

Drawdown96%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 16 Trades

no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Jun 23	$321	−$66	-20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Jun 23	$536	−$21	-4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Jun 23	$215	−$189	-88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Jun 23	$321	−$196	-61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Jun 23	$319	−$300	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Jun 23	$159	−$159	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	Jun 23	$333	−$55	-17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Jun 23	$227	−$227	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Jun 23	$214	+$169	+79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Jun 23	$266	+$193	+73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	Jun 23	$216	+$398	+185%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Jun 23	$215	+$35	+16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Jun 23	$215	−$171	-79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Jun 23	$107	+$21	+19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Jun 23	$109	+$448	+411%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	Jun 23	$80	+$166	+208%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	SELL Down	1¢	$5	50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	BUY Down	18¢	$109	51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	SELL Up	72¢	$250	52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	BUY Up	55¢	$212	55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	SELL Down	43¢	$516	55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	BUY Down	39¢	$536	58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	SELL Down	5¢	$27	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	BUY Down	35¢	$215	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	SELL Up	19¢	$125	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	BUY Up	36¢	$107	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	BUY Up	46¢	$214	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	BUY Down	54¢	$106	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	BUY Down	51¢	$213	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	SELL Up	98¢	$459	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	BUY Up	42¢	$54	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	BUY Up	55¢	$212	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$0	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$384	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	BUY Down	50¢	$213	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$614	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	BUY Down	31¢	$216	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	SELL Down	52¢	$249	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	BUY Down	39¢	$215	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$11	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$110	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	SELL Down	79¢	$278	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	BUY Down	55¢	$106	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	BUY Down	54¢	$106	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	SELL Up	8¢	$44	1h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 51 history records