Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:19:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x62cc…7fa8 other 79 markets active 22h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized −$2 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%22W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$1
14 days+$47
30 days+$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$74
sports 27% +$10
world 11% +$35
crypto 6% +$20
politics 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +11.4% +0.8% 33% 33% -10.3%
≤30d 45 +3.9% -6.0% 38% 38% +2.8%
≤90d 66 -1.4% -10.8% 33% 33% -9.6%
all 67 -2.9% -12.1% 33% 33% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 33% -10.5%
10% -20.5% 30% -19.0%
15% -28.2% 28% -26.9%
20% -35.2% 24% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$6 · ×1.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses22 / 45
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions12
Markets (closed)67 / 79
History coverage99d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 15¢ $32 $43 +$11 (+33%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+8%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 71¢ 100¢ $7 $10 +$3 (+40%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 61¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+18%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 23¢ 15¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-33%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 44¢ 13¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-70%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by June 30? Yes 6¢ 2¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-62%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-27%)
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30? Yes 6¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-61%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $3 +$14 +442%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $7 −$7 -98%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $1 +$7 +650%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 +$7 +129%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5 +$3 +55%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 21 $12 −$12 -99%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $32 +$24 +73%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 +$6 +124%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $40 −$26 -64%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 +$10 +38%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $31 −$5 -15%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $4 +$2 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $39 +$19 +48%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 +$36 +238%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $5 $0 -10%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$4 +83%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$51 +250%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $24 −$4 -15%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -12%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $19 +$6 +34%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$4 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 08 $5 +$1 +20%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $10 +$22 +223%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 27 $10 −$10 -98%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? May 26 $3 +$17 +567%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? May 23 $5 $0 -5%
Will Maccabi Tel Aviv FC win on 2026-05-16? May 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 14 $3 $0 +13%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $11 −$11 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 30¢ $7 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $8 45h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 45h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 45h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 45h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 45h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 45h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 45h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 45h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 80¢ $12 4d
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 4d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $5 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 4d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $15 4d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 56¢ $17 5d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 7d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 7d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 7d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 28¢ $14 7d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $40 8d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 8d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $26 8d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $12 8d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 8d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 8d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.72 · official $99.72 (match) · 159 history records