Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:01:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
62 0x62cd…b94c other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$29 (+5%) realized +$30 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$113per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$234now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -10.4% -19.0% 0% 0% -18.7%
≤30d 3 -10.4% -19.0% 0% 0% -18.7%
≤90d 3 -10.4% -19.0% 0% 0% -18.7%
all 3 -10.4% -19.0% 0% 0% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.0% 0% -18.7%
10% -26.7% 0% -26.5%
15% -33.8% 0% -33.6%
20% -40.3% 0% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$8 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$234
Realized+$30
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)3 / 5
History coverage5d
Avg bet$113
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 21¢ $118 $119 +$1 (+1%)
Will Norway reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $118 $116 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $1 $0 -11%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $135 −$14 -10%
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Jun 26 $99 −$10 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $121 48m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 21¢ $119 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 21¢ $2 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 21¢ $2 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 21¢ $0 1h
Will Norway reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 32¢ $110 1h
Will Norway reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $121 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $135 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $89 2d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? SELL Yes 63¢ $89 2d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 68¢ $99 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $234.39 · official $234.39 (match) · 17 history records