Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:44:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
62 0x62cd…7b19 sports 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$29 (+5%) realized +$29 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%12W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$122
7 days+$50
14 days+$50
30 days+$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$73
other 10% −$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +7.2% -3.0% 63% 63% -0.9%
≤30d 19 +7.2% -3.0% 63% 63% -0.9%
≤90d 22 -7.5% -16.3% 55% 55% -4.7%
all 22 -7.5% -16.3% 55% 55% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 55% -4.7%
10% -24.3% 55% -13.8%
15% -31.6% 55% -22.1%
20% -38.3% 45% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -57% → late +42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$20 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized+$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses12 / 10
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)22 / 23
History coverage77d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Under 62¢ 62¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $35 +$23 +65%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 27 $20 −$20 -99%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 27 $41 +$28 +70%
UFC Fight Night: Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Andrey Pulyaev (Middleweight, Jun 27 $51 +$25 +50%
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Bantamweight, Pre Jun 27 $12 +$8 +62%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 27 $18 +$20 +109%
Senegal vs. Iraq: Senegal O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 26 $30 +$26 +86%
Senegal vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $25 +$19 +76%
Norway vs. France: France 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $20 +$13 +62%
Spread: Chicago Sky (-4.5) Jun 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Türkiye vs. United States: United States O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 26 $20 +$17 +83%
Norway vs. France: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $30 +$14 +46%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: New Zealand O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $20 −$20 -99%
Son Heungmin: 1+ goals Jun 25 $11 +$7 +67%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $51 +$30 +60%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $20 −$20 -99%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 24 $30 −$30 -99%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? May 27 $6 −$6 -98%
Will AC Nagano Parceiro win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will SC Sagamihara win on 2026-04-12? Apr 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Under 61¢ $39 1h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 62¢ $40 5h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 62¢ $40 5h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 60¢ $35 10h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 52¢ $20 10h
Spread: Chicago Sky (-4.5) BUY PortlandFire 47¢ $20 36h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 47¢ $18 37h
Senegal vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 56¢ $25 37h
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Bantamweight, Pre BUY Jean Matsumoto 61¢ $12 38h
Senegal vs. Iraq: Senegal O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 53¢ $30 2d
Norway vs. France: France 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 61¢ $20 2d
Norway vs. France: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $20 2d
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Under 58¢ $41 2d
New Zealand vs. Belgium: New Zealand O/U 0.5 BUY Under 55¢ $20 2d
Türkiye vs. United States: United States O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 54¢ $20 2d
UFC Fight Night: Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Andrey Pulyaev (Middleweight, BUY Nursulton Ruziboev 66¢ $51 2d
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $20 3d
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY No 59¢ $30 3d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 68¢ $5 3d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 68¢ $25 3d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 67¢ $50 3d
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 62¢ $51 3d
Son Heungmin: 1+ goals BUY No 59¢ $11 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 31d
Will AC Nagano Parceiro win on 2026-04-12? BUY Yes 23¢ $7 77d
Will SC Sagamihara win on 2026-04-12? BUY Yes 26¢ $7 77d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.33 · official $40.33 (match) · 38 history records