Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:58:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x62ce…d153 world 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 525d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$21 (-1%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate30%10W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 74% −$7
other 22% +$7
finance 2% $0
sports 1% −$28
economics 1% +$4
politics 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.5% -9.1% 17% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 15 -1.4% -10.8% 27% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 21 -1.0% -10.4% 19% 0% -9.9%
all 33 +2.3% -7.4% 30% 12% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 12% -10.5%
10% -16.3% 6% -19.1%
15% -24.4% 6% -26.9%
20% -31.8% 6% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

525d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses10 / 23
Open positions2
Markets (closed)33 / 35
History coverage525d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+0%)
Will Alberta join the US? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $36 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $30 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $65 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $35 +$1 +4%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $32 $0 -1%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $35 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $2 $0 -12%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $70 $0 -0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $7 $0 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 08 $52 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $69 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $67 −$3 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 27 $29 +$1 +3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $34 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 24 $42 −$5 -12%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 15 $301 −$1 -0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $290 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 14 $5 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 12 $111 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 11 $291 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 11 $291 $0 +0%
George Washington vs. Davidson Feb 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Marshall vs. South Alabama Feb 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the January unemployment rate be 4.3% or higher? Feb 14 $18 +$4 +22%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 10% or Feb 06 $1 $0 +2%
Trump reinstates Mexico City policy on Day 1? Feb 03 $4 $0 +9%
Will the Eagles and Commanders combine for 48 or more points? Feb 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Isaiah Likely score a touchdown? Feb 03 $4 +$13 +300%
Will another individual win the Romanian Presidential election? Jan 25 $3 +$2 +64%
Will there be less than 400k rides on the DC metro on Jan 20? Jan 22 $4 $0 -11%
Will there be 400-500k rides on the DC metro on Jan 20? Jan 21 $8 $0 -0%
Trump transgender executive order on Day 1? Jan 21 $4 +$1 +12%
Will Curtis Samuel score a touchdown? Jan 19 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $36 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $3 35h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $30 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $30 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $33 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $33 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $32 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $32 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $28 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $32 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $32 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $32 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $30 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $6 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $35 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 55¢ $23 8d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 55¢ $13 8d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $35 8d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $6 8d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 8d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $7 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.63 · official $35.59 (match) · 129 history records