Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:47:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

62
0x62cf…5826
world · 123 markets active 1d ago
2.0score
+$152,334 +10%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$113,473 · open −$18,005
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY world specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$268,746
Realized+$113,473
Unrealized−$18,005
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses81 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$1,144
Open positions29
Markets (closed)100 / 123
History coverage96d
Avg bet$12,396
Trades / day32.5
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit77%
Chart Positions 29 History 100 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$227
7 days−$9,492
14 days+$27,210
30 days+$36,268
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 85¢ $45,027 $76,502 +$31,474 (+70%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 81¢ 99¢ $21,766 $26,828 +$5,063 (+23%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 97¢ 98¢ $22,479 $22,727 +$248 (+1%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 97¢ 99¢ $22,076 $22,485 +$409 (+2%)
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? No 62¢ 88¢ $14,384 $20,398 +$6,014 (+42%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 69¢ 90¢ $15,400 $19,874 +$4,474 (+29%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 15¢ $45,027 $13,553 −$31,474 (-70%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 77¢ 74¢ $11,097 $10,649 −$448 (-4%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 95¢ 77¢ $9,500 $7,705 −$1,795 (-19%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 83¢ 50¢ $11,776 $6,995 −$4,781 (-41%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? No 88¢ 99¢ $6,005 $6,732 +$727 (+12%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? No 77¢ 88¢ $5,575 $6,370 +$795 (+14%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? No 79¢ 92¢ $5,150 $5,947 +$798 (+15%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 87¢ 98¢ $4,330 $4,917 +$588 (+14%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 55¢ 80¢ $3,287 $4,810 +$1,523 (+46%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $3,402 $3,445 +$43 (+1%)
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? Yes 76¢ 99¢ $1,643 $2,139 +$496 (+30%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 76¢ 100¢ $1,541 $2,018 +$477 (+31%)
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? No 51¢ 62¢ $1,268 $1,541 +$273 (+22%)
Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026? No 77¢ 54¢ $1,540 $1,070 −$470 (-31%)
Trump out as President by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $989 $994 +$4 (+0%)
US takes Panama Canal before 2027? No 83¢ 88¢ $249 $266 +$16 (+7%)
Will US annex any territory in 2026? No 86¢ 92¢ $204 $218 +$15 (+7%)
Will Trump visit Greenland by December 31? No 77¢ 92¢ $179 $214 +$35 (+20%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Yes 89¢ 16¢ $952 $165 −$787 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 13 $2,863 +$227 +8%
Will Karen Bass finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angele Jun 11 $850 +$150 +18%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 11 $7,417 −$7,406 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $4,220 +$40 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $1,860 +$140 +8%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? Jun 08 $1,656 +$233 +14%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $2,876 −$2,876 -100%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $8,800 $0 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $171,214 +$1,118 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $8,460 −$201 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $16,565 +$7,085 +43%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2,560 +$2,011 +79%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $43,510 +$5,488 +13%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by May 31? Jun 01 $142 +$23 +16%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 01 $3,088 +$705 +23%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $4,927 +$484 +10%
Epstein suicide note released by May 31? Jun 01 $21,375 +$4,197 +20%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? Jun 01 $20,384 +$4,961 +24%
Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31? Jun 01 $2,929 +$494 +17%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $9,773 +$1,643 +17%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $72,297 +$8,694 +12%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31? May 29 $2,391 −$2,387 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 29 $257 +$966 +376%
Will Donald Trump dance on May 25, 2026? May 28 $1,050 +$483 +46%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 27 $828 +$122 +15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $2,360 +$1,040 +44%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 27 $15,626 +$5,474 +35%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be l May 26 $640 +$359 +56%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? May 25 $1,359 +$45 +3%
Will 0 world records be broken at the 2026 Enhanced Games? May 25 $9,572 −$4,971 -52%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 25 $1,951 +$656 +34%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b May 25 $19 −$17 -91%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 24 $13,467 +$342 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 23 $2,314 +$280 +12%
Will Warsh say "Trump" during swearing-in? May 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 22 $6,835 +$1,003 +15%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 20 $3,623 +$377 +10%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? May 19 $810 +$60 +7%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 19 $1,738 +$247 +14%
Will Italy be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $152 +$82 +54%
Will Australia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $246 +$10 +4%
Will France be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $78 −$78 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 16 $1,923 +$264 +14%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 15? May 16 $73 +$3 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 16 $12,803 +$1,865 +15%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 16 $12,105 +$2,038 +17%
Will the NYT front-page headlines say "Street" this week? May 15 $3,212 +$801 +25%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 12 $4,788 +$2,988 +62%
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30? May 12 $6,629 −$6,017 -91%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 12 $10,738 +$1,455 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 43% −$23,557
world 35% +$72,601
crypto 11% +$1,118
sports 5% +$36,604
other 5% +$7,835
culture 0% +$981
finance 0% −$112
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $259 32h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $3 34h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $143 35h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $2,607 46h
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? SELL No 0¢ $10 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $12 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $180 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $9 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $36 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $1 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $518 3d
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? BUY No 87¢ $379 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 71¢ $3,994 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 71¢ $1 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 71¢ $5 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 71¢ $1 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 71¢ $1 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 71¢ $213 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 71¢ $1 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 71¢ $42 3d
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? BUY No 87¢ $33 3d
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? BUY No 87¢ $9 3d
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? BUY No 87¢ $14 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $2,550 3d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $2,901 3d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? BUY No 92¢ $54 3d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY No 74¢ $80 3d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY No 74¢ $369 3d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY No 74¢ $15 3d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY No 74¢ $114 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+29.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -19.0% -26.7% 62% 25% -37.6%
≤30d 47 +9.2% -1.2% 81% 57% -2.9%
≤90d 100 +42.7% +29.1% 81% 58% +3.2%
all 100 +42.7% +29.1% 81% 58% +3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover32.5 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +29.1% 58% +3.2%
10% +16.7% 34% -6.7%
15% ← realistic here +5.4% 27% -15.7%
20% -4.9% 20% -24.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $268,745.77 · official $268,745.12 (match) · 3500 history records