trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump say "Biden" during No Tax on Tips Roundtable? | Apr 28 | $1 | $0 | +22% |
| Will Trump say "Dow" or "S&P" during No Tax on Tips Roundtable? | Apr 28 | $1 | $0 | +29% |
| Will Trump say "Russia" during No Tax on Tips Roundtable? | Apr 28 | $1 | +$1 | +78% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET | Mar 11 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Italy win the second most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics | Feb 15 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| US x Iran meeting by February 13, 2026? | Feb 15 | $3 | +$3 | +85% |
| US x Iran meeting by February 28, 2026? | Feb 13 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Qatar Total Open: Emma Navarro vs Anna Kalinskaya | Feb 10 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Rotterdam Open: Quentin Halys vs Mees Rottgering | Feb 10 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Israel strike Gaza on February 7, 2026? | Feb 10 | $2 | +$1 | +54% |
| Will Israel strike Gaza on February 9, 2026? | Feb 09 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Israel strike Gaza on February 3, 2026? | Feb 07 | $3 | +$2 | +64% |
| Another critical Cloudflare incident by February 28? | Feb 04 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Another critical Cloudflare incident by April 30? | Feb 04 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will no listed leader be out before 2027? | Feb 01 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will the US strike ≤1 countries in February 2026? | Feb 01 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Another US bank failure by March 31? | Feb 01 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026? | Jan 31 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| UFC 325: Brundage vs. Rowston (Middleweight, Prelims) | Jan 31 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | 3 | +43.2% | +29.6% | 100% | 100% | +29.6% |
| all | 19 | -50.9% | -55.6% | 32% | 32% | -35.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -55.6% | 32% | -35.2% |
| 10% | -59.8% | 32% | -41.4% |
| 15% | -63.7% | 21% | -47.1% |
| 20% | -67.3% | 21% | -52.3% |