Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:44:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x62d2…9fe8 other 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 160d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$129 (-12%) realized −$106 · open −$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate40%6W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$100
7 days−$100
14 days−$228
30 days−$185
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% −$62
crypto 5% −$57
sports 5% −$50
politics 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-27.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 12 -36.8% -42.8% 42% 25% -28.4%
≤90d 13 -34.0% -40.3% 38% 23% -27.3%
all 15 -19.7% -27.4% 40% 27% -23.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.4% 27% -23.1%
10% -34.3% 27% -30.5%
15% -40.7% 27% -37.2%
20% -46.5% 13% -43.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +42% → late -74% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$42 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$106
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses6 / 9
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage160d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 27¢ 14¢ $49 $26 −$23 (-46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 28 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $57 −$57 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $55 +$3 +5%
GTA 6 launch postponed again? Jun 14 $227 +$12 +6%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $86 −$86 -100%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $72 +$117 +162%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $52 +$20 +39%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $34 −$33 -96%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $101 +$43 +43%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Apr 11 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Feb 09 $25 +$39 +156%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jan 21 $24 −$2 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 27¢ $50 1h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $48 5d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 12¢ $52 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $57 13d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $57 13d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $55 13d
GTA 6 launch postponed again? SELL No 80¢ $55 13d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $86 14d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $102 15d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $188 15d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $72 16d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 99¢ $72 16d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 16d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 16d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $52 16d
GTA 6 launch postponed again? SELL No 76¢ $52 16d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $34 16d
GTA 6 launch postponed again? BUY No 78¢ $110 17d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-01? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 26d
GTA 6 launch postponed again? SELL No 77¢ $101 26d
GTA 6 launch postponed again? BUY No 64¢ $85 77d
GTA 6 launch postponed again? SELL No 63¢ $32 77d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $53 77d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $31 138d
GTA 6 launch postponed again? BUY No 62¢ $32 138d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 20¢ $0 157d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 97¢ $22 157d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 19¢ $22 157d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes 21¢ $24 159d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $25 159d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.15 · official $20.74 · 38 history records