Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:13:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x62d2…1b70 sports 73 markets active 5h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$6,728 (-20%) realized −$6,904 · open +$176
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate42%27W / 37L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$470per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$372est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$6,895now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$605
7 days−$8,483
14 days−$7,239
30 days−$7,239
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% −$7,309
other 48% +$288
crypto 2% −$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -3.2% -12.4% 43% 42% -48.8%
≤30d 64 -4.2% -13.3% 42% 41% -36.5%
≤90d 64 -4.2% -13.3% 42% 41% -36.5%
all 64 -4.2% -13.3% 42% 41% -36.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 41% -36.5%
10% -21.6% 39% -42.6%
15% -29.2% 33% -48.1%
20% -36.1% 20% -53.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$208 vs −$348 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$6,895
Realized−$6,904
Unrealized+$176
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses27 / 37
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$372
Open positions6
Markets (closed)64 / 73
History coverage18d
Avg bet$470
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 19¢ $1,627 $1,828 +$201 (+12%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $1,580 $1,311 −$269 (-17%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $1,100 $1,233 +$133 (+12%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $883 $1,179 +$296 (+34%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $1,000 $755 −$245 (-24%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $530 $590 +$60 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $103 −$19 -19%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $135 −$29 -21%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $101 −$28 -28%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $426 −$302 -71%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $101 −$91 -89%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$63 +62%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $133 −$130 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $111 −$110 -99%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 +$58 +57%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $81 +$27 +34%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $81 +$30 +38%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $102 +$103 +101%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $15 +$15 +97%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $31 +$60 +197%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $101 +$42 +42%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $101 +$26 +26%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 $0 -1%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$36 +36%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $302 +$88 +29%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $35 −$7 -18%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$40 +40%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $41 +$41 +101%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 −$21 -42%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $41 +$62 +152%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $25 −$25 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $306 +$655 +214%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $7,385 −$5,778 -78%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $3,360 −$2,459 -73%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $306 −$306 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $609 −$609 -100%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $200 +$12 +6%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $306 −$135 -44%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $137 +$54 +40%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $306 −$238 -78%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $307 +$1,210 +395%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $306 +$76 +25%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $210 −$119 -56%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $409 −$334 -82%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $410 +$463 +113%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1,027 −$168 -16%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $610 −$412 -68%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $267 −$169 -64%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $164 −$156 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a d BUY 6¢ $21 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 21¢ $51 5h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 23¢ $84 7h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? SELL Yes 12¢ $106 7h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 14¢ $17 7h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 15¢ $103 7h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 8h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 12¢ $15 8h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 27¢ $102 8h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 47¢ $73 9h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 21¢ $124 9h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over 6¢ $2 9h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over 6¢ $9 9h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 62¢ $0 9h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 62¢ $9 10h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 62¢ $3 10h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 62¢ $11 10h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 62¢ $39 10h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 66¢ $91 10h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 69¢ $90 10h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $101 10h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 73¢ $183 10h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 64¢ $101 10h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $82 20h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 20h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 20h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 24¢ $10 32h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 32h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 32h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $101 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,895.44 · official $6,965.44 · 214 history records