Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:13:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
62 0x62d8…dd17 sports 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$91 (+11%) realized +$60 · open +$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%6W / 4L
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day8.6pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$182now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% +$285
other 45% −$151
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +20.9% +9.4% 60% 60% +4.8%
≤30d 10 +20.9% +9.4% 60% 60% +4.8%
≤90d 10 +20.9% +9.4% 60% 60% +4.8%
all 10 +20.9% +9.4% 60% 60% +4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.4% 60% +4.8%
10% -1.1% 60% -5.3%
15% -10.7% 60% -14.4%
20% -19.4% 50% -22.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 44% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$70 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$182
Realized+$60
Unrealized+$31
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses6 / 4
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions3
Markets (closed)10 / 13
History coverage2d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? No 53¢ 66¢ $96 $119 +$23 (+24%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 31¢ 46¢ $28 $41 +$13 (+47%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 24¢ 20¢ $27 $22 −$5 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $47 +$37 +79%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 19 $48 +$23 +49%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $89 −$88 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $79 −$78 -99%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $72 +$76 +105%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $82 +$87 +105%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $56 −$54 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $78 +$82 +105%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $61 −$59 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $47 +$78 +165%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $29 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $28 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $97 1h
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open? SELL Yes 11¢ $10 2h
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open? SELL Yes 11¢ $21 2h
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open? SELL Yes 11¢ $21 2h
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open? SELL Yes 11¢ $19 2h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 55¢ $47 4h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $89 7h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $79 12h
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 7¢ $48 21h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 48¢ $72 24h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $56 30h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $82 30h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 48¢ $78 34h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 30¢ $61 46h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $47 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $181.78 · official $181.78 (match) · 22 history records