Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:37:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x62d8…b629 other 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$42 (-2%) realized +$33 · open −$75
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate36%5W / 9L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day23.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$1,335now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% +$7
world 23% −$110
politics 15% +$1
sports 11% +$46
crypto 2% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-28.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -21.4% -28.9% 36% 29% -4.0%
≤30d 14 -21.4% -28.9% 36% 29% -4.0%
≤90d 14 -21.4% -28.9% 36% 29% -4.0%
all 14 -21.4% -28.9% 36% 29% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.9% 29% -4.0%
10% ← realistic here -35.7% 29% -13.2%
15% -41.9% 29% -21.6%
20% -47.6% 14% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -85% → late +43% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$18 · ×1.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$1,335
Realized+$33
Unrealized−$75
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses5 / 9
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions18
Markets (closed)14 / 32
History coverage2d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day23.6
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 88¢ 88¢ $136 $136 −$1 (-1%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $131 $132 +$1 (+1%)
US bank failure by June 30? No 91¢ 92¢ $118 $120 +$2 (+2%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 85¢ 88¢ $102 $106 +$4 (+4%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 81¢ 76¢ $101 $95 −$6 (-6%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 83¢ 78¢ $101 $95 −$7 (-7%)
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 74¢ 74¢ $90 $90 +$1 (+1%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 71¢ 69¢ $86 $84 −$2 (-2%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $80 $79 −$1 (-1%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 46¢ $89 $66 −$23 (-26%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $59 $59 −$1 (-1%)
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $57 $57 +$0 (+1%)
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 177.5 Over 49¢ 50¢ $54 $56 +$1 (+2%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Under 49¢ 50¢ $43 $44 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 43¢ 30¢ $59 $40 −$18 (-31%)
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 28¢ 32¢ $33 $37 +$4 (+12%)
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Yes 33¢ 34¢ $24 $25 +$1 (+5%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Yes 37¢ 12¢ $46 $16 −$30 (-66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $25 −$24 -96%
Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $66 −$64 -96%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $38 −$13 -34%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $99 +$38 +38%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $65 +$53 +83%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $95 +$42 +44%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $8 +$29 +365%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $37 −$37 -99%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -96%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $25 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $60 1h
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 84¢ $57 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $44 2h
Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference? SELL Yes $0 4h
Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? SELL Yes $3 4h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $80 6h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL Yes 25¢ $25 7h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 38¢ $32 7h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 38¢ $6 7h
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? BUY Yes 33¢ $25 7h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 177.5 BUY Over 49¢ $55 14h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 55¢ $37 22h
Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 76¢ $15 25h
Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 76¢ $31 25h
Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 76¢ $21 25h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 21¢ $8 26h
US bank failure by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $109 27h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 88¢ $132 27h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $65 27h
Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 20¢ $25 27h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $4 27h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $98 27h
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 28¢ $34 27h
US bank failure by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $9 27h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $101 27h
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 74¢ $90 27h
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 71¢ $87 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 83¢ $101 27h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 37¢ $47 28h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16? BUY Yes $4 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,335.45 · official $1,336.84 (match) · 45 history records