trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? | No | 96¢ | 96¢ | $6 | $6 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | Jun 11 | $41 | $0 | +0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | Jun 09 | $41 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 09 | $41 | −$1 | -2% |
| Iran Nuke before 2027? | Jun 09 | $41 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 17 | $2 | $0 | -5% |
| Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? | Dec 11 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? | Jun 28 | $5 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Donald Trump visit Canada in 2025? | May 27 | $2 | −$1 | -31% |
| Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? | May 22 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? | May 20 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Trump deport less than 250,000? | May 18 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Susan Crawford win by 10% or more? | May 17 | $5 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Na Kyung-won be the People's Power Party candidate for president? | Apr 16 | $1 | $0 | +24% |
| Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec | Apr 14 | $7 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? | Apr 14 | $7 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in his first 100 days? | Apr 11 | $7 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Jerome Powell say "Tariff" during the March meeting? | Mar 21 | $8 | $0 | +4% |
| St. John's vs. DePaul | Mar 04 | $7 | +$1 | +16% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | -0.6% | -10.0% | 0% | 0% | -10.0% |
| ≤30d | 4 | -0.6% | -10.0% | 0% | 0% | -10.0% |
| ≤90d | 4 | -0.6% | -10.0% | 0% | 0% | -10.0% |
| all | 18 | +0.7% | -8.9% | 50% | 11% | -9.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -8.9% | 11% | -9.4% |
| 10% | -17.6% | 6% | -18.1% |
| 15% | -25.6% | 0% | -26.0% |
| 20% | -32.9% | 0% | -33.2% |