Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:33:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x62d9…a6ed crypto 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$172 (-40%) realized −$180 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate55%6W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$108now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$137
crypto 43% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-23.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -15.4% -23.4% 55% 27% -56.8%
≤30d 11 -15.4% -23.4% 55% 27% -56.8%
≤90d 11 -15.4% -23.4% 55% 27% -56.8%
all 11 -15.4% -23.4% 55% 27% -56.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.4% 27% -56.8%
10% -30.8% 18% -61.0%
15% -37.5% 18% -64.7%
20% -43.6% 18% -68.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 77% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -52% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$41 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$108
Realized−$180
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses6 / 5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)11 / 13
History coverage5d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 68¢ 81¢ $50 $60 +$10 (+20%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 44¢ 42¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$6 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$3 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 21 $36 −$24 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 21 $35 −$35 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$20 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 21 $40 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 21 $25 +$4 +15%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $96 −$95 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $108.21 · official $108.22 (match) · 29 history records