Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:12:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x62dc…a87c crypto 342 markets active 0h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$60 (-1%) realized −$60 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate68%232W / 110L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day10.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$93
7 days−$131
14 days−$131
30 days−$184
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$197
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 239 -0.6% -10.1% 73% 59% -12.9%
≤30d 269 -2.2% -11.5% 70% 56% -13.6%
≤90d 273 -1.2% -10.6% 70% 56% -12.5%
all 342 -1.2% -10.6% 68% 56% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 56% -12.8%
10% -19.2% 28% -21.1%
15% -27.0% 12% -28.8%
20% -34.2% 6% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$9 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$60
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses232 / 110
Open positions0
Markets (closed)342 / 342
History coverage96d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 342 Trades
no open positions (18 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 20 $9 +$2 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 20 $18 +$7 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 20 $18 −$18 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 20 $9 +$1 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 20 $9 +$3 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 20 $9 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 20 $7 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 20 $6 +$1 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 20 $9 +$1 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 20 $18 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 20 $9 +$4 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 20 $3 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 20 $18 +$3 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 20 $6 −$4 -61%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 20 $3 +$2 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 20 $15 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 20 $6 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 20 $8 +$2 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 20 $9 −$2 -22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 20 $6 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 20 $4 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 20 $6 −$1 -8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 20 $9 +$3 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 20 $6 +$1 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 20 $12 −$4 -32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 20 $13 +$10 +75%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 20 $8 −$6 -73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 20 $15 +$12 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 20 $23 −$22 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 20 $30 +$12 +41%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 20 $8 +$9 +118%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 20 $40 −$40 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 20 $41 +$6 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 20 $20 −$19 -91%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 20 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 20 $40 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 19 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$6 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 19 $20 −$6 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 19 $15 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 19 $15 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $11 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $9 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $25 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $9 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $9 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $9 18m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $9 18m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $9 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $12 27m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $9 27m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 32m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $9 35m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 42m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $9 43m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $20 48m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $9 50m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $9 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 16¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $6 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 16¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $7 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1015 history records