Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T12:39:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
62 0x62dd…ac2b weather 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 175d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL +$63 (+1%) realized +$63 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate80%28W / 7L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$199per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$444now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 64% −$3
weather 24% +$2
world 6% $0
crypto 4% +$1
sports 1% +$63
other 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 9 +0.1% -9.4% 89% 0% -9.5%
all 35 +5.4% -4.7% 80% 6% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.7% 6% -8.7%
10% -13.8% 6% -17.4%
15% -22.1% 6% -25.4%
20% -29.8% 6% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 95% · top 2 96% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +11% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×4.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×17.45 per $1 lost it wins $17.45
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

175d coverage
Net worth$444
Realized+$63
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses28 / 7
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage175d
Avg bet$199
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 25? No 100¢ 100¢ $134 $134 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 15°C on May 28? May 26 $60 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? May 19 $250 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be -4°C or below on April 10? May 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 61°F or below on April 13? May 13 $140 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on April 9? May 13 $182 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on April 9? May 13 $346 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C or below on April 8? Apr 07 $106 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C or below on April 5? Apr 05 $102 $0 +0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 30 $1,494 −$2 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on March 20 Mar 20 $189 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on March 19? Mar 19 $110 $0 +0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 18 $421 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 8°C on March 18? Mar 17 $105 $0 +0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 16 $790 −$1 -0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on Ma Mar 13 $62 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Mar 10 $628 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 09 $607 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 66-67°F on March 6? Mar 06 $49 $0 +0%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers Mar 04 $52 +$63 +122%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 03 $495 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? Mar 01 $14 $0 +1%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? Mar 01 $22 $0 +0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 01 $558 −$1 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on February 1 Feb 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 64-65°F on February Feb 22 $17 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in January? Feb 06 $23 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January? Feb 06 $28 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 45°F or below on February 4 Feb 06 $30 $0 +0%
Will Luke Littler win the PDC World Darts Championship? Jan 29 $1 +$1 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 51°F or below on January 5? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 52°F or higher on Jan Jan 29 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 38°C or higher on Janu Jan 29 $18 $0 +0%
Will Jorge Pinto qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal pre Jan 29 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 37°C on January 15? Jan 29 $20 $0 +0%
Will Finland recognize Palestine in 2025? Jan 29 $48 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $134 2h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 15°C on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $60 28d
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $250 35d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 61°F or below on April 13? BUY No 100¢ $140 72d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be -4°C or below on April 10? BUY No 100¢ $7 74d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on April 9? BUY No 100¢ $346 76d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on April 9? BUY No 100¢ $182 76d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C or below on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $106 77d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C or below on April 5? BUY No 100¢ $102 79d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $743 85d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $743 87d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on March 20 BUY No 100¢ $189 96d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $421 97d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on March 19? BUY No 100¢ $110 97d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 8°C on March 18? BUY No 100¢ $105 98d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $421 98d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $789 99d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $790 100d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $750 102d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $751 104d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on Ma BUY No 100¢ $62 104d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $628 104d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $628 106d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $607 106d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $607 109d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 66-67°F on March 6? BUY No 100¢ $49 110d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $495 111d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $495 113d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 45¢ $52 113d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $557 114d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $444.33 · official $444.33 (match) · 92 history records