Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:23:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
62 0x62df…2785 world 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 467d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate44%15W / 19L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% +$1
other 28% $0
sports 4% $0
tech 2% +$1
economics 1% $0
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +1.3% -8.4% 14% 14% -9.5%
≤30d 18 +0.5% -9.0% 22% 6% -9.5%
≤90d 18 +0.5% -9.0% 22% 6% -9.5%
all 34 +0.5% -9.0% 44% 3% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 3% -9.3%
10% -17.7% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.7% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.06 per $1 lost it wins $2.06
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

467d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses15 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage467d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 20 $46 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 20 $41 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $10 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $18 −$1 -5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $29 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $6 +$1 +14%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $23 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 11 $41 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $4 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $41 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $47 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $42 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $41 $0 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $45 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $64 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $8 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $1 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 10 $6 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 06 $6 $0 +0%
Will the CDU/CSU be part of the next German government? May 08 $17 +$1 +3%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 06 $33 $0 -0%
Will Bournemouth finish in the top 4 of EPL? Apr 05 $17 $0 +0%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2025 Japanese Grand Prix? Apr 05 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? Apr 04 $18 $0 +0%
Will Raymond Burke be the next pope? Apr 03 $17 $0 +0%
TikTok sale announced before April? Apr 02 $16 +$1 +4%
Will Bayer Leverkusen win the Bundesliga? Mar 27 $16 $0 +0%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Mar 25 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? Mar 22 $1 $0 +4%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 20 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 19 $3 $0 +5%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 11 $2 $0 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $46 40m
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $46 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 78¢ $41 18h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $11 21h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $30 21h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 25h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 26h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 26h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $3 29h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $6 29h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $8 29h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $18 31h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $29 42h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $29 44h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $9 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $11 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $12 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $23 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $2 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $16 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $23 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $41 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 29¢ $4 10d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 29¢ $4 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 105 history records