Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:50:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7.5
score
62 0x62e0…32df sports 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 23d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialistFresh edge
Total PnL +$4,770 (+50%) realized +$4,296 · open +$474
Gross ROI / mkt +56% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +41% what you keep after slip
Net edge+41%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%25W / 21L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$188per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$130est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$1,374now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,505
7 days+$4,911
14 days+$4,911
30 days+$4,433
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% +$3,000
other 25% +$1,907
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+40.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +59.2% +44.0% 55% 55% +53.6%
≤30d 46 +55.6% +40.8% 54% 54% +38.9%
≤90d 46 +55.6% +40.8% 54% 54% +38.9%
all 46 +55.6% +40.8% 54% 54% +38.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +40.8% 54% +38.9%
10% +27.3% 54% +25.6%
15% +15.0% 54% +13.5%
20% +3.8% 54% +2.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +54% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +56% · $-wt +54% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +49% → late +62% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$316 vs −$165 · ×1.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.28 per $1 lost it wins $2.28
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$1,374
Realized+$4,296
Unrealized+$474
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses25 / 21
Est. fees paid−$130
Open positions3
Markets (closed)46 / 51
History coverage23d
Avg bet$188
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Morocco leading at halftime? Yes 42¢ 96¢ $300 $689 +$389 (+130%)
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Morocco 32¢ 44¢ $300 $408 +$108 (+36%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Yes 45¢ 42¢ $300 $277 −$23 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $204 +$368 +180%
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $203 +$214 +105%
Jonathan David: 2+ goals Jun 19 $103 +$523 +510%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 19 $204 +$441 +216%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $204 +$462 +226%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $203 −$200 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $203 −$200 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $203 +$189 +93%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $205 −$200 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $101 +$77 +76%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $101 +$84 +83%
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 18 $102 +$142 +140%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $102 +$111 +109%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 −$6 -6%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $102 +$116 +114%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $306 +$603 +197%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $307 +$893 +291%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $152 −$150 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $102 +$231 +226%
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals Jun 17 $51 +$243 +474%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $205 +$848 +414%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $103 −$101 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $304 +$232 +76%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $254 +$294 +116%
Michael Olise: 1+ goals Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $407 +$569 +140%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $306 −$300 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $51 +$74 +145%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$91 +90%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $102 +$242 +237%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $107 +$93 +86%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $170 −$168 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $300 +$495 +165%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $202 −$198 -98%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 29 $761 −$748 -98%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League? May 29 $493 +$269 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 32¢ $306 1h
Morocco leading at halftime? BUY Yes 42¢ $305 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $305 1h
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals BUY Yes 40¢ $102 10h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $204 10h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 35¢ $204 10h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $203 22h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $203 22h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $203 22h
Jonathan David: 2+ goals BUY Yes 16¢ $103 25h
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 30¢ $204 25h
Spread: Canada (-2.5) BUY Canada 31¢ $204 25h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $203 28h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $205 28h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $102 31h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $101 31h
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 41¢ $102 45h
Colombia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 45h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 47¢ $102 45h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $102 47h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 39¢ $96 47h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $102 47h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 46¢ $102 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 33¢ $306 2d
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 BUY Over 25¢ $307 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 31¢ $51 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $101 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $101 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 30¢ $102 2d
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals BUY Yes 17¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,373.76 · official $1,386.00 (match) · 79 history records