Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:44:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
62 0x62e1…0c45 sports 33 markets active 8h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$89 (+34%) realized +$90 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%13W / 17L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% +$42
other 36% +$16
world 4% +$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +31.8% +19.2% 43% 43% +24.1%
≤30d 30 +31.8% +19.2% 43% 43% +24.1%
≤90d 30 +31.8% +19.2% 43% 43% +24.1%
all 30 +31.8% +19.2% 43% 43% +24.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +19.2% 43% +24.1%
10% +7.8% 43% +12.2%
15% -2.6% 43% +1.4%
20% -12.2% 40% -8.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +37% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +32% · $-wt +37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +86% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$7 · ×2.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.76 per $1 lost it wins $1.76
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized+$90
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses13 / 17
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)30 / 33
History coverage4d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Over 60¢ 62¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Germany? Yes 31¢ 28¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 +$15 +291%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $10 +$8 +79%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $5 +$11 +211%
Weston McKennie: 1+ goals Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Korea Republic to score first vs. Mexico? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $10 +$9 +90%
Ali Ahmed: 1+ goals Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Jonathan David: 1+ assists Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Bae Junho: 1+ goals Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 18 $5 $0 -10%
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 +$11 +73%
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals Jun 17 $5 +$20 +388%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 +$20 +388%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 +$9 +93%
Spread: England (-3.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Harry Kane: 1+ assists Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$31 +307%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 +$2 +36%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $10 +$28 +276%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$18 +172%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $13 +$21 +156%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 8h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 31¢ $5 14h
Weston McKennie: 1+ goals BUY Yes 22¢ $5 14h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $10 20h
Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Germany? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 20h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 20h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 32h
Korea Republic to score first vs. Mexico? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 33h
Ali Ahmed: 1+ goals BUY Yes 26¢ $5 35h
Jonathan David: 1+ assists BUY Yes 31¢ $5 35h
Bae Junho: 1+ goals BUY Yes 16¢ $5 39h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 BUY Over 64¢ $5 39h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 39h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 52¢ $10 39h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 19¢ $5 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 2d
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 59¢ $5 2d
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $10 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 20¢ $5 2d
Spread: England (-3.5) BUY England $5 2d
Harry Kane: 1+ assists BUY Yes 12¢ $10 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 2d
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals BUY Yes 20¢ $5 2d
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $10 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $10 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $15 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 BUY Over 24¢ $10 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $15 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $5 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.09 · official $24.09 (match) · 49 history records