Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:08:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
62 0x62ec…f173 other 78 markets active 17h ago coverage 584d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$18 (+0%) realized +$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate18%14W / 62L
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$254per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$107now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$9
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 70% −$14
politics 15% −$7
other 11% −$5
sports 1% +$41
crypto 1% $0
world 1% $0
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 19 +0.2% -9.4% 16% 5% -9.2%
≤90d 63 -7.9% -16.7% 13% 8% -10.4%
all 76 -2.3% -11.6% 18% 11% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 11% -9.5%
10% -20.1% 11% -18.1%
15% -27.8% 11% -26.0%
20% -34.9% 11% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$2 · ×5.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

584d coverage
Net worth$107
Realized+$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses14 / 62
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)76 / 78
History coverage584d
Avg bet$254
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana dip to $10 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $68 $68 +$0 (+0%)
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $39 $39 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 26 $23 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 25 $20 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $19 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $22 $0 -0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $9 +$10 +105%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $15 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $23 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $124 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $22 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $18 $0 -0%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $18 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 04 $46 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $16 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 02 $27 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? Jun 02 $62 $0 +0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $23 $0 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 29 $14 $0 -0%
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 24 $23 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $15 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $116 $0 -0%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 18 $8 +$5 +62%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $106 $0 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 12 $112 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 11 $108 $0 -0%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $9 +$6 +65%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 08 $105 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 07 $102 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $222 $0 -0%
Will Jack Draper win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 02 $100 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $111 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $105 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $110 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $103 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Apr 25 $102 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 25 $109 $0 -0%
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 25 $103 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $100 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 24 $112 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 24 $111 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $112 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 23 $103 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 23 $110 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $108 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $110 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $108 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $103 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $106 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $110 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $23 16h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $23 18h
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $19 37h
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $20 39h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $19 3d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $19 3d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $39 7d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $22 7d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $22 7d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $15 8d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $15 8d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 48¢ $9 8d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $22 9d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 9d
Will Solana dip to $10 in June? BUY No 100¢ $68 9d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $21 10d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $21 10d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $22 14d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $22 14d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $20 16d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $20 16d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $18 17d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $18 17d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres BUY Cincinnati Reds 46¢ $7 18d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $18 21d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $18 21d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $24 22d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $24 22d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $15 24d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $16 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $107.06 · official $107.06 (match) · 261 history records