Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:20:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x62ed…90ed world 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 470d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+0%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate39%17W / 27L
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$9
14 days+$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 76% +$4
other 8% −$2
weather 3% −$1
politics 3% $0
finance 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
sports 2% $0
culture 2% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -1.7% -11.0% 8% 0% -10.7%
≤30d 22 -0.1% -9.6% 32% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 22 -0.1% -9.6% 32% 0% -9.4%
all 44 -2.1% -11.5% 39% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 0% -9.4%
10% -19.9% 0% -18.1%
15% -27.7% 0% -26.0%
20% -34.8% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

470d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses17 / 27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)44 / 44
History coverage470d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 44 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $88 −$3 -3%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $16 −$1 -5%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $3 $0 -6%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $48 +$3 +6%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $49 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $65 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $106 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $110 −$5 -4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $56 −$3 -5%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $92 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $3 $0 -2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $4 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $101 +$1 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $40 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $29 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $55 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $106 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $83 +$8 +10%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $6 $0 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 05 $46 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $43 +$1 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $45 $0 +0%
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? Dec 30 $6 $0 +5%
Will Chelsea win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Steven Fulop win the 2025 Democratic Primary for governor of New Jun 09 $5 $0 +1%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 05 $7 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? Jun 01 $2 $0 +1%
Will Han Duck-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president? May 06 $2 $0 +8%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 06 $2 $0 -12%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 18 $15 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people? Apr 04 $18 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 03 $18 $0 +0%
Will Juventus win the Serie A? Apr 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in his first 100 days? Apr 01 $17 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Apr 01 $17 $0 +1%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.22-1.26ºC in March 2025? Mar 31 $17 $0 -1%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.37-1.41ºC in March 2025? Mar 30 $18 $0 -2%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 28 $18 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 23? Mar 24 $18 $0 +1%
Will Hamas enter Israel by Friday? Mar 23 $17 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday? Mar 19 $16 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 46-47°F on March 15? Mar 15 $16 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 7-14? Mar 15 $15 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78000 and $80000 on Mar 7? Mar 11 $17 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 41¢ $28 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $32 4h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $7 6h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $8 6h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $16 10h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 13h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 13h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 17h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 72¢ $22 27h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 72¢ $29 29h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $20 30h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $3 30h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $24 30h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $38 33h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $12 33h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $2 36h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $12 36h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $36 36h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $50 40h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $50 44h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $11 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $15 3d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 76¢ $55 3d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $55 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 75¢ $32 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 75¢ $17 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 82¢ $2 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 82¢ $52 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 155 history records