Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:49:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
62 0x62f0…0171 sports 60 markets active 1h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$74 (+1%) realized +$78 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR70%break-even
Win rate70%35W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$196now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$106
14 days+$208
30 days+$264
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% +$30
other 7% +$74
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +70%
net ROI/market (all)+2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +13.9% +3.1% 73% 73% +5.3%
≤30d 33 +29.3% +17.0% 79% 79% +10.8%
≤90d 47 +20.6% +9.1% 74% 74% +25.8%
all 50 +13.3% +2.5% 70% 70% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.5% 70% -7.6%
10% -7.3% 68% -16.4%
15% -16.2% 58% -24.5%
20% -24.4% 46% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +39% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$105 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$196
Realized+$78
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses35 / 15
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 60
History coverage106d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Over 73¢ 72¢ $200 $196 −$4 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 29 $25 −$25 -99%
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 29 $10 +$5 +54%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 29 $71 +$28 +40%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 26 $10 −$10 -99%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $151 +$41 +27%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $8 +$6 +76%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 AND Will Bosnia and Herzegov Jun 24 $10 +$5 +48%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $10 −$4 -43%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $6 +$4 +79%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $5 +$3 +57%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $340 +$53 +15%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $4 −$4 -99%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 +$4 +44%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 AND Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $101 +$45 +45%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win Jun 20 $6 +$3 +52%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026- Jun 20 $6 +$7 +118%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 +$5 +89%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 20 $11 +$10 +93%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 AND Will Australia win on 2026-06 Jun 19 $7 +$4 +54%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $13 +$6 +44%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 AND Will South Africa win on 2026-06 Jun 18 $7 +$4 +56%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $50 +$13 +26%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $6 +$6 +97%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4 +$3 +86%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $209 +$67 +32%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 +$6 +116%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $20 +$11 +53%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 AND Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $2 +$1 +66%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $5 +$4 +71%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$7 +72%
KFUM-Kameratene Oslo vs. Tromsø IL: O/U 0.5 May 29 $65 −$64 -99%
KFUM-Kameratene Oslo vs. Tromsø IL: O/U 1.5 May 29 $13 −$13 -98%
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC: O/U 2.5 May 29 $50 +$30 +59%
Independiente del Valle vs. CA Rosario Central: O/U 0.5 May 27 $25 +$11 +46%
Club Libertad vs. Universidad Central de Venezuela FC: O/U 1.5 May 27 $24 −$24 -99%
Sandefjord Fotball vs. Fredrikstad FK: O/U 1.5 May 25 $60 +$33 +55%
Sandefjord Fotball vs. Fredrikstad FK: O/U 2.5 May 25 $21 −$21 -99%
FK Bodø/Glimt leading at halftime? May 24 $30 +$20 +66%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $19 +$11 +59%
GNK Dinamo Zagreb vs. NK Lokomotiva Zagreb: O/U 1.5 May 23 $15 −$15 -99%
HNK Rijeka vs. HNK Gorica: O/U 1.5 May 23 $38 +$11 +29%
Brøndby IF vs. FC København: O/U 0.5 May 21 $20 +$19 +95%
IK Start vs. FK Bodø/Glimt: O/U 2.5 May 20 $200 +$65 +33%
RB Leipzig vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 2.5 Apr 24 $1,999 +$1,136 +57%
SS Lazio vs. AC Milan: O/U 1.5 Mar 15 $466 −$466 -100%
VfB Stuttgart vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 1.5 Mar 15 $531 −$531 -100%
SC Freiburg vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 1.5 Mar 15 $357 −$357 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $202 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 73¢ $25 2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $16 3h
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 64¢ $10 4h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance AND Germany vs. Paraguay: German BUY 67¢ $7 5h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $98 6h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $71 9h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 7.5 Total Corners AND South Africa vs. Ca BUY 56¢ $10 30h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 56¢ $10 3d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $192 4d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $151 4d
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $14 4d
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 AND Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY 56¢ $8 4d
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $8 4d
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 AND Will Bosnia and Herzegov SELL 99¢ $15 5d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 32¢ $6 5d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $10 5d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $6 5d
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 AND Will Bosnia and Herzegov BUY 66¢ $10 5d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $10 5d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $8 6d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 63¢ $5 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $393 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $340 6d
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $4 7d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $5 7d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY 69¢ $10 7d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 AND Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY 68¢ $101 8d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY 57¢ $22 8d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY 53¢ $6 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $195.89 · official $195.89 (match) · 99 history records