Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:58:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
62 0x62f1…0f70 other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 89d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$79 (+24%) realized +$81 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate80%4W / 1L
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$198now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 89d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$2
sports 35% +$77
crypto 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +105.1% +85.6% 100% 100% +85.6%
≤90d 5 +3.8% -6.1% 80% 40% +46.5%
all 5 +3.8% -6.1% 80% 40% +46.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.1% 40% +46.5%
10% -15.1% 20% +32.5%
15% -23.3% 20% +19.7%
20% -30.8% 20% +7.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +62% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +62% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$21 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×4.7 per $1 lost it wins $4.7
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$198
Realized+$81
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses4 / 1
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage89d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 May 30 $93 +$98 +105%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 23 $21 −$21 -99%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? Apr 23 $3 $0 +12%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in March? Apr 23 $4 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Apr 23 $4 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $203 2h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 48¢ $93 25d
Knicks vs. Hawks BUY Knicks 52¢ $21 57d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in March? BUY No 99¢ $4 88d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? BUY No 89¢ $3 88d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $4 88d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $197.87 · official $197.87 (match) · 10 history records