Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:19:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x62f2…733c sports 170 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (84 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$337 (-17%) realized −$336 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate51%84W / 82L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day84.1pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% −$57
other 28% −$255
crypto 11% −$43
world 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (84 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 166 -9.8% -18.4% 51% 45% -25.4%
≤30d 166 -9.8% -18.4% 51% 45% -25.4%
≤90d 166 -9.8% -18.4% 51% 45% -25.4%
all 166 -9.8% -18.4% 51% 45% -25.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover84.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.4% 45% -25.4%
10% ← realistic here -26.2% 36% -32.6%
15% -33.3% 28% -39.1%
20% -39.9% 19% -45.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$8 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$336
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses84 / 82
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions4
Markets (closed)166 / 170
History coverage5d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day84.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 166 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Over 79¢ 78¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-1%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Under 80¢ 78¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-3%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Over 83¢ 84¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Ecuador leading at halftime? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 20 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 20 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $10 +$3 +26%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $10 +$6 +57%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $56 −$14 -25%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $25 −$7 -26%
Overwatch: Virtus.pro vs Al Qadsiah (BO3) - OCS EMEA Stage 2 Group Sta Jun 20 $5 −$1 -20%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $5 −$3 -60%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 −$2 -46%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $15 +$5 +32%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $25 −$6 -22%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $5 +$3 +65%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$3 +27%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $20 +$4 +18%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $7 −$2 -28%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $15 −$4 -26%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $10 −$3 -27%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $10 +$2 +18%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $5 −$3 -62%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $30 +$6 +20%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $5 +$3 +62%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 20 $10 +$3 +27%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $5 −$3 -56%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Mimi Xu vs Elsa Jacquemot Jun 20 $5 +$3 +67%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Playo Jun 20 $10 −$2 -23%
Rainbow Six Siege: One Coin vs Four Angry Men (BO3) - CN League Stage Jun 20 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +25%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $45 −$2 -4%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos (BO3) - The International South Jun 20 $30 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +2%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $5 +$5 +101%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $7 +$6 +82%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $30 +$9 +30%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $49 −$43 -86%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $10 −$3 -34%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $9 −$6 -70%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 −$3 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 20 $2 $0 -2%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $5 +$2 +38%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $10 +$3 +32%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $58 +$12 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 20 $11 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$1 -20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador leading at halftime? BUY Yes 66¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 4¢ $0 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 16m
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 79¢ $10 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 80¢ $15 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 79¢ $16 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Down 31¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.24 · official $53.40 (match) · 466 history records