Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:31:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
62 0x62f9…c755 sports 31 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
! high turnover
Total PnL +$307 (+23%) realized +$308 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR69%break-even
Win rate69%18W / 8L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day41.2pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days+$21
14 days+$289
30 days+$289
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% +$297
other 24% −$15
crypto 1% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +69%
net ROI/market (all)+32.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +34.6% +21.8% 61% 61% -7.4%
≤30d 26 +46.1% +32.2% 69% 69% +11.3%
≤90d 26 +46.1% +32.2% 69% 69% +11.3%
all 26 +46.1% +32.2% 69% 69% +11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +32.2% 69% +11.3%
10% ← realistic here +19.5% 65% +0.6%
15% +8.0% 65% -9.1%
20% -2.6% 65% -18.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +46% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +50% → late +42% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
15.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$41 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.88 per $1 lost it wins $1.88
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$73
Realized+$308
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses18 / 8
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions5
Markets (closed)26 / 31
History coverage12d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day41.2
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Norway 60¢ 60¢ $54 $54 −$0 (-1%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Houston Astros 60¢ 60¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 51¢ 48¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-7%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Under 46¢ 46¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Los Angeles Angels 50¢ 50¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $2 $0 -7%
UFC Fight Night: Giga Chikadze vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, P Jun 15 $3 $0 -2%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $311 −$15 -5%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $7 +$6 +86%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $160 +$155 +97%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $2 +$2 +146%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $30 −$30 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 12 $9 −$1 -6%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +11%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $41 +$43 +104%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $5 +$4 +86%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 11 $5 +$4 +76%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $4 +$2 +65%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $3 +$3 +91%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $21 −$21 -99%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $81 +$78 +97%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $3 +$3 +83%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 09 $216 −$213 -98%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Jun 09 $4 +$4 +105%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 Jun 09 $134 +$159 +119%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 07 $4 +$4 +97%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 07 $15 +$15 +97%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 Jun 07 $63 +$56 +90%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 06 $48 −$47 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5 Jun 06 $56 +$54 +97%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 05 $32 +$23 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $2 3m
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $2 3m
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $2 3m
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $2 3m
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $2 4m
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $2 7m
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $2 9m
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $2 11m
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $2 14m
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $2 15m
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 60¢ $2 16m
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $2 18m
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 60¢ $2 18m
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 60¢ $2 18m
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $2 19m
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 60¢ $2 19m
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 60¢ $2 19m
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 60¢ $2 19m
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $2 21m
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $2 23m
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $2 24m
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $2 25m
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $2 27m
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $2 27m
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $2 27m
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $2 27m
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $2 27m
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $2 27m
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $2 27m
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $2 27m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.92 · official $72.92 (match) · 502 history records