Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:13:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x62fb…4d60 sports 124 markets active 1h ago coverage 80d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 80d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$43,879 (+13%) realized +$43,358 · open +$521
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate47%56W / 64L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$2,695per market
Trades / day42.6pace
Fees−$6,316est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$13,937now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 80d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% +$8,675
other 44% +$1,072
crypto 1% +$157
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -6.3% -15.3% 54% 8% -9.7%
≤30d 40 +0.6% -9.0% 40% 10% -9.8%
≤90d 120 +1.5% -8.2% 47% 18% -6.8%
all 120 +1.5% -8.2% 47% 18% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.6 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.2% 18% -6.8%
10% -17.0% 10% -15.7%
15% ← realistic here -25.0% 8% -23.9%
20% -32.4% 7% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$3,560) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
20.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$440 vs −$238 · ×1.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.62 per $1 lost it wins $1.62
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$13,937
Realized+$43,358
Unrealized+$521
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses56 / 64
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$6,316
Open positions4
Markets (closed)120 / 124
History coverage80d ⚠
Avg bet$2,695
Trades / day42.6
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 120 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? No 49¢ 52¢ $7,169 $7,552 +$383 (+5%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $3,111 $3,053 −$58 (-2%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Yes 44¢ 46¢ $1,760 $1,860 +$100 (+6%)
Spread: France (-2.5) France 50¢ 54¢ $1,375 $1,471 +$96 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 19 $3,851 −$82 -2%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $718 −$20 -3%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $6,274 +$236 +4%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $1,341 +$36 +3%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 18 $1,728 −$37 -2%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $639 −$583 -91%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3,860 +$504 +13%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4,398 −$368 -8%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 16 $167 +$7 +4%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 16 $2,078 +$43 +2%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $5,280 +$135 +3%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 14 $403 −$31 -8%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2,220 +$77 +4%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings Jun 12 $2,157 +$172 +8%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm Jun 11 $2,721 −$40 -2%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 10 $1,986 −$15 -1%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 09 $632 −$14 -2%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $773 −$17 -2%
PortlandFire vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 07 $3,345 −$77 -2%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $3,089 −$97 -3%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $819 +$324 +40%
Chicago Sky vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 07 $338 +$25 +7%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 06 $1,298 −$66 -5%
Connecticut Sun vs. Chicago Sky Jun 05 $1,481 −$81 -6%
Dallas Wings vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 05 $2,220 +$78 +4%
Phoenix Mercury vs. PortlandFire Jun 05 $61 −$6 -10%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 04 $1,136 +$79 +7%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $3,049 +$174 +6%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $4,118 −$173 -4%
Will Albania win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $81 −$3 -4%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 01 $4,564 −$303 -7%
Will Córdoba CF win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $12 +$1 +8%
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $824 −$34 -4%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Washington Mystics May 29 $5,463 −$293 -5%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings May 28 $2,945 −$13 -0%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $45 +$77 +170%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $2,720 −$6 -0%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $4,209 −$166 -4%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $3,074 −$213 -7%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $3,415 +$477 +14%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-24? May 20 $5,133 −$10 -0%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? May 19 $2,919 +$766 +26%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $88 −$21 -24%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $251 +$3 +1%
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $2,720 +$265 +10%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $4,275 −$111 -3%
Will FC Groningen win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1,004 −$68 -7%
Will FC Twente '65 win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $197 −$18 -9%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $389 +$11 +3%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-05-17? May 14 $497 −$489 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 36¢ $3 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 36¢ $1,061 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 36¢ $5 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 36¢ $4 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 36¢ $1,618 1h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Haiti 48¢ $1,849 5h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 39¢ $1,014 5h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 39¢ $11 5h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 39¢ $6 6h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 39¢ $1,034 6h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 37¢ $575 6h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 37¢ $3,493 7h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 36¢ $3,121 7h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 35¢ $1,829 7h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 35¢ $70 7h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 52¢ $622 7h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 39¢ $6,510 7h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Haiti 48¢ $1,920 12h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 50¢ $1,522 23h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 49¢ $49 24h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 49¢ $4 24h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 49¢ $49 24h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 49¢ $49 24h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 49¢ $5 24h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 49¢ $62 24h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 49¢ $49 24h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 49¢ $49 24h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 49¢ $49 24h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 49¢ $4 24h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 49¢ $49 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13,936.54 · official $13,936.55 (match) · 3500 history records