Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:11:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x62fd…8fb1 other 251 markets active 2h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$87 (-0%) realized −$87 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%11W / 240L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$221per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$20
14 days−$36
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$42
sports 22% −$20
politics 8% −$9
economics 8% −$16
culture 6% −$7
crypto 6% −$4
world 2% −$2
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 75 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 172 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
all 251 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$87
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses11 / 240
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)251 / 251
History coverage135d
Avg bet$221
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 251 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $398 −$1 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 20 $460 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $501 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $625 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $923 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $481 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $328 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $443 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $625 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $669 −$1 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $149 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $339 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $676 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $555 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $52 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $350 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $185 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $472 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $338 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $224 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $377 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $249 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $554 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $332 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $251 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $130 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $317 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $260 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $110 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $146 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $242 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $341 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 13 $258 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $220 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $233 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $286 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $407 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $705 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $190 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 10 $419 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $157 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $219 $0 -0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $218 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $462 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $280 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $139 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $552 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $243 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $121 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $308 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $50 2h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $51 3h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $51 5h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $51 6h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $51 14h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $51 15h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $51 20h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $51 22h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $51 23h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $51 25h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $51 29h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $51 30h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $51 33h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $51 35h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $51 35h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $51 37h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $51 38h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $51 40h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $51 42h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $51 43h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 96¢ $48 2d
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 97¢ $48 2d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $52 2d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $52 2d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $52 2d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $52 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $52 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $52 2d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $52 2d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $52 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1430 history records