Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:25:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
62 0x62ff…5058 sports 215 markets active 0h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5,434 (-5%) realized −$5,425 · open −$9
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate43%93W / 121L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$482per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$1,015est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$241now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$572
7 days+$1,053
14 days+$1,053
30 days+$1,053
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% −$8,325
other 20% +$2,764
world 2% −$146
politics 1% +$156
finance 0% −$39
crypto 0% −$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +20.7% +9.2% 56% 56% +27.7%
≤30d 16 +20.7% +9.2% 56% 56% +27.7%
≤90d 162 +6.6% -3.5% 44% 43% -12.4%
all 214 +2.4% -7.4% 43% 42% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 42% -12.9%
10% -16.2% 38% -21.2%
15% -24.3% 33% -28.8%
20% -31.7% 27% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$584) neutral
Persistence
early +1% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$331 vs −$301 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$241
Realized−$5,425
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses93 / 121
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$1,015
Open positions1
Markets (closed)214 / 215
History coverage159d
Avg bet$482
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 214 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 54¢ 52¢ $250 $241 −$9 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 65 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Scotland vs. Morocco: Team to Take First Corner Jun 19 $202 +$107 +53%
United States vs. Australia: United States 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $253 +$178 +70%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $187 +$296 +158%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $148 −$62 -42%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $219 −$88 -40%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $205 +$191 +93%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $254 +$266 +105%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $135 −$57 -42%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 17 $152 −$150 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $152 +$166 +109%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 +$58 +57%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $167 +$108 +65%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $182 +$123 +67%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $151 −$32 -21%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 05 $6,292 −$3,402 -54%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 May 05 $629 −$620 -98%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $281 +$614 +219%
Vålerenga Fotball vs. KFUM-Kameratene Oslo: O/U 3.5 May 03 $285 +$322 +113%
Como 1907 vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 2.5 May 02 $559 −$550 -98%
Pistons vs. Magic May 02 $876 −$866 -99%
Leeds United FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 4.5 May 01 $11 −$11 -97%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Blockx (+1.5) May 01 $278 +$195 +70%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-05-01? May 01 $662 −$650 -98%
Girona FC vs. RCD Mallorca: O/U 3.5 May 01 $169 −$96 -57%
Viking FK vs. Rosenborg BK: O/U 3.5 May 01 $508 −$500 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Sinner vs Fils May 01 $94 +$25 +27%
Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Arthur Fils May 01 $67 −$65 -97%
Celtics vs. 76ers May 01 $252 +$496 +197%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-04-30? Apr 30 $357 +$808 +226%
FK Shakhtar Donetsk vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 30 $259 +$750 +289%
Spread: FK Bodø/Glimt (-2.5) Apr 30 $203 +$222 +109%
Madrid Open: Casper Ruud vs Alexander Blockx Apr 30 $862 −$701 -81%
Will Arsenal win a trophy this season? Apr 30 $357 −$46 -13%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 30 $357 −$350 -98%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 30 $164 −$160 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $490 −$480 -98%
Tromsø IL vs. SK Brann: O/U 2.5 Apr 29 $304 +$172 +57%
Set Handicap: Sinner (-1.5) vs Jodar (+1.5) Apr 29 $505 +$254 +50%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 29 $767 −$760 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $648 +$436 +67%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5) Apr 28 $204 −$200 -98%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5 Apr 28 $2,387 +$2,432 +102%
Madrid Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Casper Ruud Apr 28 $62 +$438 +711%
Lillestrøm SK vs. FK Bodø/Glimt: O/U 3.5 Apr 26 $487 −$308 -63%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $653 −$639 -98%
Molde FK vs. Vålerenga Fotball: O/U 2.5 Apr 26 $410 +$243 +59%
Coventry City FC vs. Wrexham AFC: O/U 2.5 Apr 26 $250 −$166 -66%
ACF Fiorentina vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 1.5 Apr 26 $826 −$235 -28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $253 5m
Scotland vs. Morocco: Team to Take First Corner SELL Morocco 100¢ $309 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Team to Take First Corner BUY Morocco 65¢ $202 2h
United States vs. Australia: United States 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 58¢ $253 13h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $484 25h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 38¢ $187 26h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 29¢ $86 28h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $148 28h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 30h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 28¢ $131 31h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $30 37h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $188 37h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $396 47h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 51¢ $51 47h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 51¢ $17 47h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 51¢ $137 47h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 10¢ $1 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $520 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 30¢ $78 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 50¢ $135 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $254 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 54¢ $152 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $319 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $152 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $101 3d
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $167 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $305 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 59¢ $182 4d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 54¢ $119 4d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $151 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $240.74 · official $247.69 · 490 history records