Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:26:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
63 0x6303…8972 sports 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 173d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$2,120 (+38%) realized +$2,125 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate56%15W / 12L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$197per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$292now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$100
14 days−$100
30 days−$595
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$1,978
crypto 1% +$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -36.3% -42.4% 50% 50% -47.2%
≤30d 3 -57.5% -61.6% 33% 33% -82.8%
≤90d 12 +27.1% +15.0% 50% 42% +38.6%
all 27 +15.9% +4.9% 56% 52% +25.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.9% 52% +25.6%
10% -5.2% 48% +13.6%
15% -14.3% 41% +2.6%
20% -22.7% 22% -7.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +53% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +19% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$295 vs −$200 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.84 per $1 lost it wins $1.84
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

173d coverage
Net worth$292
Realized+$2,125
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses15 / 12
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage173d
Avg bet$197
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 30¢ 30¢ $297 $292 −$5 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $131 −$130 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 15 $110 +$30 +27%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Iga Swiatek May 31 $499 −$495 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 17 $226 −$224 -99%
LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Sentinels (BO3) - LCS Regular Season May 17 $169 +$61 +36%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 09 $152 +$18 +12%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 28 $498 −$495 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 28 $558 +$41 +7%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 23 $420 +$2,988 +711%
LoL: Team WE vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qua Mar 29 $78 −$78 -100%
Senators vs. Rangers Mar 23 $422 −$422 -100%
Saint Louis Billikens vs. Georgia Bulldogs Mar 23 $559 +$735 +132%
Lakers vs. Rockets Mar 16 $342 −$342 -100%
Pacers vs. Bucks Mar 16 $348 +$142 +41%
Mavericks vs. Magic Mar 14 $77 +$23 +30%
Senators vs. Canucks Mar 14 $71 +$34 +47%
Bucks vs. Bulls Mar 14 $100 +$150 +150%
Celtics vs. Nuggets Feb 25 $84 −$84 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 21? Feb 25 $68 +$42 +63%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 16 $53 +$24 +45%
Mavericks vs. Lakers Feb 16 $58 +$24 +41%
LoL: DRX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO5) - LCK Cup Play-In Feb 16 $48 +$102 +212%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Vitality (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage Feb 16 $46 −$46 -100%
76ers vs. Raptors Jan 26 $21 +$16 +75%
76ers vs. Hornets Jan 26 $40 −$40 -100%
Magic vs. Bulls Jan 02 $21 −$21 -100%
Mavericks vs. Kings Dec 27 $26 −$26 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 30¢ $303 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $131 3d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 78¢ $110 11d
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Iga Swiatek BUY Iga Swiatek 75¢ $499 18d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 64¢ $226 32d
LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Sentinels (BO3) - LCS Regular Season BUY Sentinels 73¢ $169 39d
Lakers vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 89¢ $152 44d
76ers vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 83¢ $498 51d
LoL: Gen.G vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Gen.G 93¢ $93 56d
LoL: Gen.G vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Gen.G 93¢ $465 56d
76ers vs. Celtics BUY 76ers 12¢ $420 59d
LoL: Team WE vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qua BUY ThunderTalk Gaming 34¢ $78 81d
Senators vs. Rangers BUY Rangers 37¢ $24 87d
Senators vs. Rangers BUY Rangers 36¢ $47 87d
Senators vs. Rangers BUY Rangers 36¢ $1 87d
Senators vs. Rangers BUY Rangers 37¢ $285 87d
Senators vs. Rangers BUY Rangers 36¢ $1 87d
Senators vs. Rangers BUY Rangers 36¢ $45 87d
Senators vs. Rangers BUY Rangers 36¢ $19 87d
Saint Louis Billikens vs. Georgia Bulldogs BUY Saint Louis Billikens 43¢ $559 91d
Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Rockets 57¢ $342 94d
Pacers vs. Bucks BUY Bucks 71¢ $348 96d
Senators vs. Canucks BUY Senators 68¢ $71 101d
Mavericks vs. Magic BUY Magic 77¢ $77 105d
Bucks vs. Bulls BUY Bulls 40¢ $100 108d
Celtics vs. Nuggets BUY Celtics 42¢ $42 113d
Celtics vs. Nuggets BUY Celtics 42¢ $42 113d
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 21? BUY Up 61¢ $68 117d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Vitality (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage BUY MOUZ 31¢ $46 122d
Mavericks vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 71¢ $58 126d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $292.05 · official $292.05 (match) · 51 history records