Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T16:34:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
63 0x6304…24aa crypto 52 markets active 2h ago coverage 522d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate76%39W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$136per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% −$6
crypto 12% +$2
politics 1% $0
sports 1% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 7 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 51 +0.1% -9.4% 76% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

522d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses39 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 52
History coverage522d
Avg bet$136
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 03 $21 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 03 $43 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? May 05 $18 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April? May 05 $36 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in March? Apr 01 $3 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in March? Apr 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $140 in March? Apr 01 $48 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1,200 in February? Mar 03 $8 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in February? Mar 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in February? Mar 03 $40 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January? Feb 01 $16 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.60 in January? Feb 01 $49 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in December? Jan 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jan 01 $51 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.60 in November? Dec 03 $59 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5600 in October? Nov 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in October? Nov 04 $54 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in September? Oct 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.60 in September? Oct 03 $37 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $140 in August? Sep 01 $21 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $145 in August? Sep 01 $32 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? Aug 02 $4 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in July? Aug 02 $21 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140K in July? Aug 02 $38 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Jul 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in June? Jul 01 $29 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? Jun 16 $3 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in May? Jun 16 $4 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? Jun 16 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? Jun 16 $13 $0 +0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2025? Apr 28 $5,915 −$6 -0%
Will Spain win Eurovision 2025? Apr 18 $12 $0 -0%
Will 'Michael' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Apr 17 $14 $0 -0%
Will Jarred McCain win NBA Rookie of the Year? Apr 15 $32 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2025 National League Championship? Apr 12 $33 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon himself in his first 100 days? Apr 09 $21 $0 -0%
Ethereum all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $5 $0 +0%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 by March? Apr 02 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will Carlton Carrington win NBA Rookie of the Year? Mar 26 $40 $0 -0%
Will Anton Pisaroglu win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 17 $33 $0 -0%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.20ºC in February 2025? Mar 08 $8 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $100 by February 28 2025? Mar 03 $14 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will SPD win the most seats in the next German election? Feb 21 $18 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 450-474 times Jan 24-31? Feb 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will $Trump FDV be $45-50b on Feb 1? Feb 13 $16 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 13 $21 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by January 31, 2025? Jan 27 $14 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $60 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $21 29d
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? BUY No 100¢ $43 31d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $18 61d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April? BUY No 100¢ $36 63d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $3 91d
Will Solana dip to $40 in March? BUY No 100¢ $14 92d
Will Solana reach $140 in March? BUY No 100¢ $48 93d
Will BNB reach $1,200 in February? BUY No 100¢ $8 123d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in February? BUY No 100¢ $16 123d
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in February? BUY No 100¢ $40 123d
Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January? BUY No 100¢ $16 149d
Will XRP reach $3.60 in January? BUY No 100¢ $49 151d
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in December? BUY No 100¢ $13 182d
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $51 183d
Will XRP reach $3.60 in November? BUY No 100¢ $13 211d
Will XRP reach $3.60 in November? BUY No 100¢ $46 211d
Will Ethereum reach $5600 in October? BUY No 100¢ $6 243d
Will Solana reach $300 in October? BUY No 100¢ $17 243d
Will Solana reach $300 in October? BUY No 100¢ $37 243d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in September? BUY No 100¢ $14 274d
Will XRP reach $3.60 in September? BUY No 100¢ $37 274d
Will Solana dip to $140 in August? BUY No 100¢ $21 302d
Will Solana dip to $145 in August? BUY No 100¢ $32 303d
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? BUY No 100¢ $4 333d
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in July? BUY No 100¢ $21 333d
Will Bitcoin reach $140K in July? BUY No 100¢ $38 334d
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in June? BUY No 100¢ $29 363d
Ethereum all time high by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $20 364d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? BUY No 100¢ $13 395d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.90 · official $59.90 (match) · 106 history records