Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:09:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x6306…f58a sports 14 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$15 (+7%) realized +$14 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%5W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% +$49
crypto 25% −$34
other 19% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -7.1% -16.0% 38% 38% -13.2%
≤30d 13 -7.1% -16.0% 38% 38% -13.2%
≤90d 13 -7.1% -16.0% 38% 38% -13.2%
all 13 -7.1% -16.0% 38% 38% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 38% -13.2%
10% -24.0% 38% -21.5%
15% -31.3% 38% -29.1%
20% -38.1% 31% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 75% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late -34% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$13 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses5 / 8
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage3d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $51 +$26 +52%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $11 +$8 +72%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $20 +$8 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +70%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $9 +$44 +473%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 22m
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $68 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $20 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $19 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 BUY Over 59¢ $10 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 SELL Under 41¢ $9 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 BUY Over 59¢ $30 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 BUY Under 44¢ $10 2h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) SELL Netherlands 75¢ $21 2h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) SELL Netherlands 74¢ $7 2h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 52¢ $20 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $11 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 2d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $53 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $9 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.79 · official $10.79 (match) · 29 history records