Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:58:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x630e…66ae crypto 97 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (108 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+1%) realized +$7 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate66%63W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day108.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (108 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 96 +5.4% -4.7% 66% 53% -8.8%
≤30d 96 +5.4% -4.7% 66% 53% -8.8%
≤90d 96 +5.4% -4.7% 66% 53% -8.8%
all 96 +5.4% -4.7% 66% 53% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover108.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.7% 53% -8.8%
10% ← realistic here -13.8% 48% -17.5%
15% -22.1% 35% -25.5%
20% -29.8% 24% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses63 / 33
Open positions1
Markets (closed)96 / 97
History coverage1d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day108.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Down 82¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 20 $52 +$21 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 20 $3 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 20 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 20 $7 +$4 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 20 $3 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$6 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 20 $3 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$3 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 20 $3 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 20 $4 +$3 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 20 $31 +$9 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 20 $2 +$1 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 20 $2 +$1 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$3 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 20 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$3 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 20 $21 +$14 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 20 $2 +$1 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 20 $2 +$1 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 20 $2 +$2 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 20 $2 +$2 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$8 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 19 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 19 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 19 $2 +$1 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 19 $21 +$13 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 19 $2 +$2 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 19 $7 −$7 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $3 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $52 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $21 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $10 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.15 · official $10.15 (match) · 181 history records