Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T10:54:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

63
0x630f…5501
sports · 201 markets active 0h ago
4.5score
+$849 +31%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$824 · open −$16
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY sports specialist
Net worth$684
Realized+$824
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses71 / 55
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions73
Markets (closed)126 / 201
History coverage36d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit64%
Chart Positions 73 History 126 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$440
7 days+$318
14 days+$642
30 days+$833
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No 55¢ 54¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-3%)
O/U 1.5 Rounds Over 54¢ 48¢ $40 $36 −$4 (-11%)
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 96¢ $20 $28 +$8 (+39%)
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 48¢ 50¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 65¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Will Belgium be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 70¢ 73¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? No 69¢ 68¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Kyle Daukaus 28¢ 28¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
O/U 1.5 Rounds Over 50¢ 49¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No 74¢ 71¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 35¢ 33¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
O/U 0.5 Rounds Over 64¢ 52¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-19%)
Will South Korea reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 46¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+55%)
Will France score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 18¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+28%)
Will the New York Yankees win the 2026 World Series? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 National League Championship Series? Yes 39¢ 40¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 72¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 69¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 39¢ 39¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 45¢ 45¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 51¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will South Korea be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Belgium reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 38¢ 37¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $51 +$187 +366%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? Jun 14 $22 +$87 +404%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +55%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 +$15 +144%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 14 $10 +$14 +134%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $10 +$20 +197%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 14 $10 +$15 +146%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 14 $20 +$11 +52%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $31 +$49 +159%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 14 $10 +$10 +103%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 14 $20 +$45 +222%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 14 $10 +$18 +180%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$3 +134%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $25 +$2 +6%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -10%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +165%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 11 $10 +$5 +48%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 11 $10 +$7 +65%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $20 +$16 +79%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5 Jun 11 $20 +$21 +101%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 11 $30 +$29 +96%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 09 $20 +$11 +52%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 09 $20 +$5 +24%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-0 be the exact series outcome? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Jun 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 210.5 Jun 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Knicks lead the 2026 NBA Finals 4-0 through 4 games? Jun 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 222.5 Jun 09 $40 −$40 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-9.5) Jun 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-10.5) Jun 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 08 $10 +$21 +210%
Cobolli vs. Zverev: Match O/U 36.5 Jun 08 $20 +$15 +76%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5) Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 07 $1 +$1 +119%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 72% +$728
other 25% +$94
world 2% −$2
politics 1% −$11
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $10 17m
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Kyle Daukaus 28¢ $20 31m
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 36m
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 50¢ $20 40m
O/U 0.5 Rounds BUY Over 64¢ $20 43m
O/U 3.5 Rounds BUY Over 31¢ $10 1h
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Over 38¢ $10 1h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 49¢ $20 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 30¢ $5 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 18¢ $5 1h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 59¢ $5 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 67¢ $2 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 63¢ $2 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 51¢ $5 1h
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) BUY Knicks 23¢ $10 9h
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Knicks 33¢ $10 9h
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) BUY Knicks 40¢ $10 9h
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) BUY Knicks 35¢ $10 9h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 53¢ $5 11h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $2 11h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 38¢ $5 15h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $5 15h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $5 15h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $5 15h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 51¢ $5 15h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 15h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 74¢ $5 15h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 15h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 31¢ $2 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 +16.5% +5.4% 49% 47% +31.4%
≤30d 123 +33.6% +20.9% 57% 56% +28.2%
≤90d 126 +31.6% +19.1% 56% 56% +27.0%
all 126 +31.6% +19.1% 56% 56% +27.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +19.1% 56% +27.0%
10% +7.7% 55% +14.9%
15% -2.7% 52% +3.8%
20% -12.2% 50% -6.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $684.44 · official $694.45 · 405 history records