Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:08:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x6310…6de3 sports 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$30 (+5%) realized +$0 · open +$30
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate41%12W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$111now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$40
7 days+$25
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$10
other 10% +$28
tech 6% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +15.8% +4.8% 50% 42% -3.3%
≤30d 29 +2.1% -7.6% 41% 34% -11.0%
≤90d 29 +2.1% -7.6% 41% 34% -11.0%
all 29 +2.1% -7.6% 41% 34% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 34% -11.0%
10% -16.4% 28% -19.5%
15% -24.5% 28% -27.3%
20% -31.9% 24% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$7 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$111
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$30
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses12 / 17
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions3
Markets (closed)29 / 33
History coverage8d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 62¢ 100¢ $51 $81 +$30 (+60%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $10 −$4 -35%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $37 +$15 +40%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$11 +55%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $5 +$23 +439%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $5 −$2 -47%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $20 −$15 -72%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $61 −$10 -17%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 −$3 -13%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $10 −$2 -19%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $31 −$9 -29%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners AND Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Her Jun 18 $10 −$1 -12%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$12 +119%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 17 $10 −$4 -35%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 17 $16 +$1 +7%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 +$8 +83%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $24 +$4 +15%
SpaceX IPO: Open Up/Down on Second Day Jun 15 $10 +$7 +71%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $10 +$13 +124%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $42 +$9 +21%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 +$6 +62%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $25 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $20 −$9 -45%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $10 −$3 -28%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs Monte (+3.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner SELL FURIA 22¢ $7 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY FURIA 31¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY FURIA 34¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $27 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 90¢ $15 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 83¢ $9 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 66¢ $7 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 80¢ $12 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 66¢ $10 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 66¢ $10 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 66¢ $10 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 73¢ $10 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 64¢ $10 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $10 5h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $10 5h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $20 5h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 29h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 42h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 42h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 27¢ $3 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 50¢ $5 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 10.5 Total Corners AND Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U BUY 23¢ $20 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 15¢ $6 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL 9z 43¢ $12 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 42¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL 9z 44¢ $37 3d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 36¢ $9 3d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 3d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $110.86 · official $110.86 (match) · 94 history records