Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:10:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x6312…f94e sports 654 markets active 0h ago coverage 102d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 101d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$50 (+0%) realized +$1,176 · open −$1,126
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate43%244W / 322L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day29.2pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$4,695now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 102d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% +$3,113
sports 21% −$426
other 16% +$583
politics 10% −$70
crypto 5% +$626
finance 4% −$171
tech 2% −$96
economics 1% +$89
culture 0% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 83 +18.2% +7.0% 46% 43% +12.2%
≤30d 185 +30.0% +17.6% 42% 38% -6.3%
≤90d 394 +16.5% +5.4% 42% 36% -0.3%
all 566 +10.4% -0.1% 43% 38% +0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.1% 38% +0.7%
10% ← realistic here -9.6% 32% -8.9%
15% -18.4% 26% -17.7%
20% -26.4% 21% -25.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -10% → late +31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$71 vs −$40 · ×1.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$4,695
Realized+$1,176
Unrealized−$1,126
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses244 / 322
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions103
Markets (closed)566 / 654
History coverage102d ⚠
Avg bet$82
Trades / day29.2
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 103 History 566 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $349 $334 −$15 (-4%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 41¢ 50¢ $262 $320 +$58 (+22%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $324 $313 −$11 (-3%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 13¢ 16¢ $269 $313 +$44 (+16%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? No 8¢ 22¢ $62 $172 +$110 (+176%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? No 64¢ 81¢ $128 $163 +$35 (+27%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 13¢ 8¢ $262 $162 −$100 (-38%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? No 30¢ 34¢ $137 $151 +$14 (+10%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 71¢ 75¢ $142 $149 +$7 (+5%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 26¢ 22¢ $157 $135 −$22 (-14%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 44¢ 42¢ $122 $118 −$4 (-3%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $109 $111 +$2 (+2%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $119 $101 −$18 (-15%)
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027? Yes 17¢ 15¢ $103 $91 −$12 (-12%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $90 $91 +$0 (+0%)
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? No 75¢ 76¢ $90 $91 +$1 (+1%)
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? No 48¢ 42¢ $96 $83 −$13 (-14%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 20¢ 16¢ $99 $79 −$21 (-21%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes 25¢ 22¢ $81 $73 −$8 (-10%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Yes 21¢ 14¢ $105 $67 −$37 (-36%)
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Max Holloway 67¢ 66¢ $67 $66 −$0 (-1%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 34¢ 33¢ $67 $66 −$1 (-1%)
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 8¢ 16¢ $32 $66 +$34 (+106%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $66 $65 −$1 (-1%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 44¢ 42¢ $66 $64 −$2 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $54 −$2 -5%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $34 −$1 -2%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $23 +$5 +20%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $44 −$13 -29%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 18 $17 +$86 +502%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 18 $244 +$65 +27%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $65 +$85 +130%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Jun 18 $74 +$12 +16%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $45 +$55 +124%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) Jun 17 $25 +$34 +133%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $54 +$60 +111%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $19 −$1 -4%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $36 −$8 -22%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $83 −$52 -62%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 −$70 -71%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $56 +$7 +13%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 17 $22 −$22 -98%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $36 −$36 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $73 +$27 +38%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $24 +$5 +23%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $41 −$21 -50%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 17 $20 +$2 +8%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $33 +$17 +52%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 17 $63 +$37 +60%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $12 −$10 -89%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 −$46 -90%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $11 −$1 -11%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $27 +$15 +55%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $24 +$30 +124%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $29 −$29 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 16 $109 −$109 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $44 −$35 -79%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $40 −$2 -5%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $188 +$86 +46%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $119 +$31 +26%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $58 +$45 +78%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $16 −$3 -20%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $33 +$373 +1115%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $150 −$60 -40%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $92 −$92 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $606 −$269 -44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $10 20m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score SELL No 52¢ $51 37m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 67¢ $33 38m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 23¢ $50 39m
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 52¢ $115 39m
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 54¢ $120 39m
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 45m
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $27 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $31 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 45¢ $22 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 45¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $19 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $40 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 65¢ $14 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 65¢ $19 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 63¢ $64 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 70¢ $106 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 39¢ $40 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 24¢ $74 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $54 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $167 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 35¢ $27 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $161 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 35¢ $1 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 35¢ $1 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 35¢ $1 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 35¢ $1 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 35¢ $1 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 35¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,695.15 · official $4,694.36 (match) · 3500 history records