Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:10:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
63 0x6314…0183 economics 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 49d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$3,635 (+63%) realized +$3,804 · open −$169
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +24% what you keep after slip
Net edge+24%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%4W / 5L
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$361per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$54est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$4,521now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 49d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% +$3,807
other 28% −$294
economics 12% −$141
crypto 6% +$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+23.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +43.0% +29.4% 67% 67% +73.6%
≤30d 8 -3.7% -12.9% 38% 38% +83.1%
≤90d 9 +36.7% +23.7% 44% 44% +84.6%
all 9 +36.7% +23.7% 44% 44% +84.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +23.7% 44% +84.6%
10% +11.8% 44% +66.9%
15% +1.0% 44% +50.8%
20% -8.9% 44% +36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +104% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +37% · $-wt +104% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,037 vs −$116 · ×8.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.17 per $1 lost it wins $7.17
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$4,521
Realized+$3,804
Unrealized−$169
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses4 / 5
Est. fees paid−$54
Open positions7
Markets (closed)9 / 16
History coverage49d
Avg bet$361
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $777 $737 −$40 (-5%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $333 $361 +$28 (+9%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $250 $240 −$10 (-4%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $250 $228 −$22 (-9%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $195 $184 −$11 (-6%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $200 $167 −$33 (-17%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $108 $27 −$81 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $237 −$222 -94%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1,132 +$809 +71%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 11 $1,058 +$1,577 +149%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Jun 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during April press conference? Jun 06 $86 −$86 -100%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Jun 06 $101 −$101 -100%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Jun 06 $159 −$159 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $698 +$1,682 +241%
Will Powell say "Iran" during April press conference? Apr 29 $22 +$81 +360%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $118 37m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $218 2h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 4¢ $212 2h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $267 22h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $829 22h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $237 5d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $356 6d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $267 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 39¢ $1,058 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $1,132 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 30¢ $265 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 27¢ $364 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 23¢ $69 11d
Raptors vs. Cavaliers BUY Raptors 9¢ $159 44d
Raptors vs. Cavaliers BUY Raptors 23¢ $101 48d
Will Powell say "Iran" during April press conference? SELL Yes 99¢ $103 48d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY Yes 0¢ $10 48d
Will Powell say "Iran" during April press conference? BUY Yes 21¢ $22 48d
Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during April press conference? BUY No 3¢ $86 48d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,520.53 · official $4,520.53 (match) · 31 history records