Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:52:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x6315…27a9 crypto 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$147 (-9%) realized −$147 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$311per market
Trades / day32.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$147
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-42.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -36.5% -42.6% 40% 0% -18.1%
≤30d 5 -36.5% -42.6% 40% 0% -18.1%
≤90d 5 -36.5% -42.6% 40% 0% -18.1%
all 5 -36.5% -42.6% 40% 0% -18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -42.6% 0% -18.1%
10% ← realistic here -48.1% 0% -25.9%
15% -53.1% 0% -33.1%
20% -57.7% 0% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$65 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$147
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$311
Trades / day32.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 24 $703 +$16 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 24 $413 −$74 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 24 $308 +$31 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 24 $117 −$107 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 24 $16 −$14 -86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $618 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $101 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $101 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $101 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $137 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $96 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $239 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $107 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 35 history records